Trader sentiment for Beijing's highest temperature on March 25 clusters tightly around 24-25°C at 26% implied probabilities each, reflecting consensus from major global models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting a high-pressure ridge fostering warm southerly flow and afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. This marks an anomaly above the late-March climatological average of 13-15°C, amplified by lingering El Niño influences and urban heat island effects in the capital. Differentiation among 24-26°C outcomes stems from model spread on exact cloud cover timing and wind speeds—slight overcast persistence favors 24°C, while fuller insolation pushes toward 26°C—pending CMA's next update and real-time observations from Beijing Capital Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 25?
24°C 26%
25°C 26%
26°C 20%
27°C 18%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
20%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C or higher
14%
24°C 26%
25°C 26%
26°C 20%
27°C 18%
19°C or below
2%
20°C
12%
21°C
14%
22°C
15%
23°C
16%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
20%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Beijing's highest temperature on March 25 clusters tightly around 24-25°C at 26% implied probabilities each, reflecting consensus from major global models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting a high-pressure ridge fostering warm southerly flow and afternoon heating under mostly clear skies. This marks an anomaly above the late-March climatological average of 13-15°C, amplified by lingering El Niño influences and urban heat island effects in the capital. Differentiation among 24-26°C outcomes stems from model spread on exact cloud cover timing and wind speeds—slight overcast persistence favors 24°C, while fuller insolation pushes toward 26°C—pending CMA's next update and real-time observations from Beijing Capital Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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