Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader sentiment toward 18°C (31.5%) and 19°C (28%), with models converging on a high near 18.5°C for Beijing on March 23 amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over northern China. This follows a recent cold frontal passage that moderated early-spring warmth, but clear skies and light southerly winds are expected to enable peak afternoon heating around 2-4 PM local time at the official Beijing Observatory station. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads in cloud cover—thicker stratus could cap at 17-18°C, while sunnier conditions push toward 19-20°C—and urban heat island amplification in the megacity. Historical March 23 highs average 13°C but show volatility, with El Niño residuals favoring the warmer cluster over lower outcomes like 16°C or below. Final resolution hinges on verified observations from China Meteorological Administration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 23?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 23?
18°C 35%
19°C 30%
17°C 15%
16°C 13%
13°C or below
4%
14°C
5%
15°C
3%
16°C
13%
17°C
15%
18°C
34%
19°C
30%
20°C
12%
21°C
10%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
8%
18°C 35%
19°C 30%
17°C 15%
16°C 13%
13°C or below
4%
14°C
5%
15°C
3%
16°C
13%
17°C
15%
18°C
34%
19°C
30%
20°C
12%
21°C
10%
22°C
8%
23°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader sentiment toward 18°C (31.5%) and 19°C (28%), with models converging on a high near 18.5°C for Beijing on March 23 amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over northern China. This follows a recent cold frontal passage that moderated early-spring warmth, but clear skies and light southerly winds are expected to enable peak afternoon heating around 2-4 PM local time at the official Beijing Observatory station. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads in cloud cover—thicker stratus could cap at 17-18°C, while sunnier conditions push toward 19-20°C—and urban heat island amplification in the megacity. Historical March 23 highs average 13°C but show volatility, with El Niño residuals favoring the warmer cluster over lower outcomes like 16°C or below. Final resolution hinges on verified observations from China Meteorological Administration.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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