Trader sentiment for Taipei's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on divergent weather model outputs from the Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, implying a 25% chance of 27°C or higher amid mild southerly flows but a 20% risk of 17°C or below if a continental cold surge strengthens. Leading outcomes cluster around 23-26°C (17% each), reflecting historical late-March averages of 23-25°C influenced by subtropical high pressure and urban heat island effects, yet differentiated by cloud cover variability and northeasterly wind shear—key factors in shortwave trough progression that could suppress peaks by 3-5°C. Upcoming CWA bulletins by March 25 will likely sharpen these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
27°C or higher 25%
17°C or below 20%
24°C 17%
25°C 17%
17°C or below
20%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
13%
21°C
15%
22°C
16%
23°C
16%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C or higher
25%
27°C or higher 25%
17°C or below 20%
24°C 17%
25°C 17%
17°C or below
20%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
13%
21°C
15%
22°C
16%
23°C
16%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
17%
27°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Taipei's highest temperature on March 26 hinges on divergent weather model outputs from the Central Weather Administration (CWA) and global forecasts like ECMWF and GFS, implying a 25% chance of 27°C or higher amid mild southerly flows but a 20% risk of 17°C or below if a continental cold surge strengthens. Leading outcomes cluster around 23-26°C (17% each), reflecting historical late-March averages of 23-25°C influenced by subtropical high pressure and urban heat island effects, yet differentiated by cloud cover variability and northeasterly wind shear—key factors in shortwave trough progression that could suppress peaks by 3-5°C. Upcoming CWA bulletins by March 25 will likely sharpen these market-implied odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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