Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high of 27°C (36.5% implied probability) or 26°C (25.5%), driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest guidance projecting peaks of 26-28°C on March 23 amid persistent southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Historical March data shows average highs around 24°C, but a warming trend—fueled by fading El Niño influences and reduced frontal activity—has pushed recent days to 25-26°C, aligning models like ECMWF and GFS toward upper-20s outcomes. Low precipitation odds (under 20%) minimize cooling risks, though minor forecast tweaks could shift probabilities before resolution using official station measurements at Taipei Songshan Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
24°C 30%
27°C 26%
26°C 26%
22°C or below 22%
22°C or below
22%
23°C
13%
24°C
18%
25°C
15%
26°C
26%
27°C
37%
28°C
11%
29°C
9%
30°C
9%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
3%
24°C 30%
27°C 26%
26°C 26%
22°C or below 22%
22°C or below
22%
23°C
13%
24°C
18%
25°C
15%
26°C
26%
27°C
37%
28°C
11%
29°C
9%
30°C
9%
31°C
8%
32°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Taipei high of 27°C (36.5% implied probability) or 26°C (25.5%), driven by the Central Weather Administration's latest guidance projecting peaks of 26-28°C on March 23 amid persistent southerly winds and high pressure dominance. Historical March data shows average highs around 24°C, but a warming trend—fueled by fading El Niño influences and reduced frontal activity—has pushed recent days to 25-26°C, aligning models like ECMWF and GFS toward upper-20s outcomes. Low precipitation odds (under 20%) minimize cooling risks, though minor forecast tweaks could shift probabilities before resolution using official station measurements at Taipei Songshan Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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