Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high temperature of 18–20°C on March 24, with 19°C and 18°C nearly tied at over 30% implied probability each, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting mild conditions amid a weakening southerly flow. These models show ensemble means clustering around 18.5–19.5°C, differentiated by subtle variations in coastal cloud cover and sea breeze intensification from the warmer Mediterranean surface temperatures (currently ~17°C). Recent IMS updates confirm no major cold front, but diel temperature cycles and urban heat island effects in Tel Aviv add ~1–2°C uncertainty, keeping 20°C viable at 21.5% while cooler 17°C or below lags below 20%. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
19°C 33%
18°C 31%
20°C 22%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
6%
14°C
2%
15°C
15%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
31%
19°C
32%
20°C
22%
21°C
9%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
10%
19°C 33%
18°C 31%
20°C 22%
17°C 18%
13°C or below
6%
14°C
2%
15°C
15%
16°C
17%
17°C
18%
18°C
31%
19°C
32%
20°C
22%
21°C
9%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high temperature of 18–20°C on March 24, with 19°C and 18°C nearly tied at over 30% implied probability each, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting mild conditions amid a weakening southerly flow. These models show ensemble means clustering around 18.5–19.5°C, differentiated by subtle variations in coastal cloud cover and sea breeze intensification from the warmer Mediterranean surface temperatures (currently ~17°C). Recent IMS updates confirm no major cold front, but diel temperature cycles and urban heat island effects in Tel Aviv add ~1–2°C uncertainty, keeping 20°C viable at 21.5% while cooler 17°C or below lags below 20%. Traders eye tomorrow's 12Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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