Traders are closely split on Taipei's March 24 high temperature, with market-implied odds favoring 26–28°C at roughly 25% each, reflecting ensemble weather model consensus around 27°C from the Central Weather Administration and global forecasts like ECMWF/GFS. This clustering stems from anticipated mild easterly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peak solar insolation, potentially capping highs below 29°C, while urban heat island effects in Taipei boost readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. Differentiating factors include afternoon convection risk—higher odds for 26°C if showers develop—or clearer skies pushing toward 28°C, against a March historical average of 24°C amid recent East Asian warming trends. Watch CWA's next 24-hour update for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
26°C 27%
27°C 26%
28°C 25%
25°C 16%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
7%
24°C
11%
25°C
16%
26°C
27%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C or higher
7%
26°C 27%
27°C 26%
28°C 25%
25°C 16%
21°C or below
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
7%
24°C
11%
25°C
16%
26°C
27%
27°C
26%
28°C
25%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are closely split on Taipei's March 24 high temperature, with market-implied odds favoring 26–28°C at roughly 25% each, reflecting ensemble weather model consensus around 27°C from the Central Weather Administration and global forecasts like ECMWF/GFS. This clustering stems from anticipated mild easterly winds and partial cloud cover limiting peak solar insolation, potentially capping highs below 29°C, while urban heat island effects in Taipei boost readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. Differentiating factors include afternoon convection risk—higher odds for 26°C if showers develop—or clearer skies pushing toward 28°C, against a March historical average of 24°C amid recent East Asian warming trends. Watch CWA's next 24-hour update for resolution shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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