Current IMD forecasts and ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF peg Lucknow's maximum temperature on March 23 at around 30-32°C, driving trader consensus toward 31°C or below (54.5%) and 32°C (32.5%) as frontrunners. This aligns with seasonal norms for late March in Uttar Pradesh, where historical maxima average 31.5°C amid dry pre-monsoon conditions, but recent western disturbances have introduced cooler northerly winds, suppressing highs by 2-3°C below climatology. Preliminary observations from March 22 show morning lows near 18°C, favoring moderation; a shift to clearer skies could nudge toward 33°C (9%), though low-probability heat spikes above 35°C reflect minimal model agreement on advection of warmer air masses. Traders eye IMD's afternoon update for resolution tweaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 58%
32°C 34%
33°C 10%
35°C 3.1%
$122,526 Vol.
$122,526 Vol.
31°C or below
54%
32°C
34%
33°C
10%
34°C
3%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 58%
32°C 34%
33°C 10%
35°C 3.1%
$122,526 Vol.
$122,526 Vol.
31°C or below
54%
32°C
34%
33°C
10%
34°C
3%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current IMD forecasts and ensemble models from GFS and ECMWF peg Lucknow's maximum temperature on March 23 at around 30-32°C, driving trader consensus toward 31°C or below (54.5%) and 32°C (32.5%) as frontrunners. This aligns with seasonal norms for late March in Uttar Pradesh, where historical maxima average 31.5°C amid dry pre-monsoon conditions, but recent western disturbances have introduced cooler northerly winds, suppressing highs by 2-3°C below climatology. Preliminary observations from March 22 show morning lows near 18°C, favoring moderation; a shift to clearer skies could nudge toward 33°C (9%), though low-probability heat spikes above 35°C reflect minimal model agreement on advection of warmer air masses. Traders eye IMD's afternoon update for resolution tweaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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