Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 13°C or higher in Warsaw on March 24 at 63% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting mild temperatures around 13-15°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warmer Atlantic air masses northward. This setup overrides Warsaw's typical late-March climatology, where historical highs average 9-10°C based on 30-year IMGW data, amid low wind shear and stable boundary layers minimizing cooling. Recent developments include a 2-3°C upward shift in model guidance over the past 48 hours following improved upper-air observations, boosting confidence in the warmer outcomes while sidelining colder scenarios below 11°C, which now hold under 20% combined odds. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model runs for potential tweaks ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 24?
13°C or higher 65%
12°C 15%
11°C 9.0%
10°C 3.7%
$11,814 Vol.
$11,814 Vol.
3°C or below
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
9%
12°C
15%
13°C or higher
65%
13°C or higher 65%
12°C 15%
11°C 9.0%
10°C 3.7%
$11,814 Vol.
$11,814 Vol.
3°C or below
1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
9%
12°C
15%
13°C or higher
65%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a high of 13°C or higher in Warsaw on March 24 at 63% implied probability, propelled by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting mild temperatures around 13-15°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge channeling warmer Atlantic air masses northward. This setup overrides Warsaw's typical late-March climatology, where historical highs average 9-10°C based on 30-year IMGW data, amid low wind shear and stable boundary layers minimizing cooling. Recent developments include a 2-3°C upward shift in model guidance over the past 48 hours following improved upper-air observations, boosting confidence in the warmer outcomes while sidelining colder scenarios below 11°C, which now hold under 20% combined odds. Key watch: tomorrow's 12Z model runs for potential tweaks ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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