Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 11°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on March 21, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which converge on a daytime maximum of 10-12°C amid a cool northerly airflow. Official data from Poland's IMGW-PIB aligns, projecting cloudy skies with light precipitation capping highs near 11°C, consistent with March climatology where averages hover at 9-11°C and recent cold snaps have suppressed anomalies. Historical model verification shows high accuracy for such synoptic patterns three days out. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm advection from the southwest, but stable upper-level geopotential heights and low model spread make deviations above 13°C improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 21?
11°C 100.0%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C or higher <1%
$45,268 Vol.
$45,268 Vol.
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
11°C 100.0%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
14°C or higher <1%
$45,268 Vol.
$45,268 Vol.
11°C
100%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:17 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: Yes
Ventana de disputas
Final
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 11°C as Warsaw's highest temperature on March 21, driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, which converge on a daytime maximum of 10-12°C amid a cool northerly airflow. Official data from Poland's IMGW-PIB aligns, projecting cloudy skies with light precipitation capping highs near 11°C, consistent with March climatology where averages hover at 9-11°C and recent cold snaps have suppressed anomalies. Historical model verification shows high accuracy for such synoptic patterns three days out. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen warm advection from the southwest, but stable upper-level geopotential heights and low model spread make deviations above 13°C improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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