Trader sentiment for Miami's March 24 high temperature hinges on ensemble weather models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, which converge on 82-85°F amid a mild southerly flow and above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. The razor-thin lead for 84-85°F (31.5%) over 82-83°F (31.0%) reflects the GFS 00Z run's warmer bias at 84°F versus ECMWF's cooler 83°F ensemble mean, with recent 12Z updates nudging odds upward on low-level ridging. Historical March 24 highs average 80°F, but current La Niña transition favors warmer anomalies; sea breeze timing adds uncertainty, differentiating these bins as NWS point forecast holds at 83°F ahead of tomorrow's update.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 20%
78-79°F 14%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 20%
78-79°F 14%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
20%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
32%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Miami's March 24 high temperature hinges on ensemble weather models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF, which converge on 82-85°F amid a mild southerly flow and above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico. The razor-thin lead for 84-85°F (31.5%) over 82-83°F (31.0%) reflects the GFS 00Z run's warmer bias at 84°F versus ECMWF's cooler 83°F ensemble mean, with recent 12Z updates nudging odds upward on low-level ridging. Historical March 24 highs average 80°F, but current La Niña transition favors warmer anomalies; sea breeze timing adds uncertainty, differentiating these bins as NWS point forecast holds at 83°F ahead of tomorrow's update.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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