Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper-70s highs for Los Angeles on March 24, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs forecasting 76-80°F under a stubborn high-pressure ridge amplifying adiabatic warming aloft. This setup suppresses the typical marine layer, allowing stronger insolation and light Santa Ana winds to boost peaks by 5-10°F above the 69°F March climatology at LAX. Differentiation among tight leaders—74-75°F (26.5%) versus 78-79°F (25%)—hinges on afternoon cloud breaks and boundary layer mixing; GFS ensembles lean warmer at 25% spread, while historical analogs from similar ridges (e.g., March 2017) hit 82°F outliers. NWS point forecast at 79°F anchors sentiment, with resolution via official LAX observation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 24?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 24?
74-75°F 28%
72-73°F 19%
70-71°F 13%
68-69°F 10%
65°F or below
4%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
21%
84°F or higher
3%
74-75°F 28%
72-73°F 19%
70-71°F 13%
68-69°F 10%
65°F or below
4%
66-67°F
11%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
13%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
22%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
21%
84°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper-70s highs for Los Angeles on March 24, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs forecasting 76-80°F under a stubborn high-pressure ridge amplifying adiabatic warming aloft. This setup suppresses the typical marine layer, allowing stronger insolation and light Santa Ana winds to boost peaks by 5-10°F above the 69°F March climatology at LAX. Differentiation among tight leaders—74-75°F (26.5%) versus 78-79°F (25%)—hinges on afternoon cloud breaks and boundary layer mixing; GFS ensembles lean warmer at 25% spread, while historical analogs from similar ridges (e.g., March 2017) hit 82°F outliers. NWS point forecast at 79°F anchors sentiment, with resolution via official LAX observation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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