Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward a 19°C high in Chongqing on March 24 (30.5% implied probability) over 18°C (29.5%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models averaging 18.5–19.2°C amid a mild southerly airflow and urban heat island effects amplifying diurnal peaks. These closely matched odds reflect short-range model convergence after yesterday's runs, which trimmed earlier volatility from frontal uncertainties, with historical March highs in Chongqing averaging 17.5°C but spring warming trends pushing baselines higher. Light cloud cover and low wind shear differentiate the 1°C spread, favoring 19°C if insolation maximizes, though official CMA observations will resolve precise maxima by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
18°C 34%
19°C 29%
17°C 11%
20°C or higher 10%
$41,813 Vol.
$41,813 Vol.
10°C or below
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
11%
18°C
30%
19°C
29%
20°C or higher
10%
18°C 34%
19°C 29%
17°C 11%
20°C or higher 10%
$41,813 Vol.
$41,813 Vol.
10°C or below
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
11%
18°C
30%
19°C
29%
20°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts narrowly toward a 19°C high in Chongqing on March 24 (30.5% implied probability) over 18°C (29.5%), driven by the latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models averaging 18.5–19.2°C amid a mild southerly airflow and urban heat island effects amplifying diurnal peaks. These closely matched odds reflect short-range model convergence after yesterday's runs, which trimmed earlier volatility from frontal uncertainties, with historical March highs in Chongqing averaging 17.5°C but spring warming trends pushing baselines higher. Light cloud cover and low wind shear differentiate the 1°C spread, favoring 19°C if insolation maximizes, though official CMA observations will resolve precise maxima by evening.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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