Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, drive trader consensus toward a Shenzhen high of 26-27°C on March 23, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 40.5% for 27°C and 33.5% for 26°C due to a forecasted mean peak of about 26.8°C under high-pressure ridging and southerly winds advecting warmth from the South China Sea. Differentiating factors include minor model spread—ECMWF runs slightly warmer amid low cloud cover—versus GFS cooling bias from potential afternoon sea breezes, alongside Shenzhen's urban heat island effect boosting late-day readings by 1-2°C above rural stations. Historical March 23 highs average 25°C but range 23-29°C, underscoring typical forecast uncertainty within ±1.5°C this close to resolution. Traders eye final CMA observations for official max temp.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
27°C 40%
26°C 39%
28°C 21%
29°C 17%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
34%
27°C
41%
28°C
21%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
9%
27°C 40%
26°C 39%
28°C 21%
29°C 17%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
4%
25°C
3%
26°C
34%
27°C
41%
28°C
21%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, drive trader consensus toward a Shenzhen high of 26-27°C on March 23, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 40.5% for 27°C and 33.5% for 26°C due to a forecasted mean peak of about 26.8°C under high-pressure ridging and southerly winds advecting warmth from the South China Sea. Differentiating factors include minor model spread—ECMWF runs slightly warmer amid low cloud cover—versus GFS cooling bias from potential afternoon sea breezes, alongside Shenzhen's urban heat island effect boosting late-day readings by 1-2°C above rural stations. Historical March 23 highs average 25°C but range 23-29°C, underscoring typical forecast uncertainty within ±1.5°C this close to resolution. Traders eye final CMA observations for official max temp.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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