Latest high-resolution weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, project Shenzhen's March 24 peak temperature clustering tightly around 26-28°C, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds favoring 27°C (29%), 26°C (27%), and 28°C (22%). This consensus stems from moderating sea breezes off the South China Sea, persistent low-level moisture suppressing extremes, and urban heat island effects in the densely built metropolis nudging highs modestly upward from historical March averages of 24-25°C. Recent model updates show minimal spread—standard deviation under 1.5°C—differentiating leaders via subtle cloud cover variations and diurnal heating rates, with 30°C+ odds low absent unexpected ridging. Official China Meteorological Administration outlooks align, emphasizing frontal boundary risks that could shave 1-2°C off peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
27°C 29%
26°C 20%
28°C 10%
25°C 7%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
22%
29°C
18%
30°C or higher
16%
27°C 29%
26°C 20%
28°C 10%
25°C 7%
20°C or below
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
7%
26°C
27%
27°C
29%
28°C
22%
29°C
18%
30°C or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest high-resolution weather models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, project Shenzhen's March 24 peak temperature clustering tightly around 26-28°C, fueling the neck-and-neck trader odds favoring 27°C (29%), 26°C (27%), and 28°C (22%). This consensus stems from moderating sea breezes off the South China Sea, persistent low-level moisture suppressing extremes, and urban heat island effects in the densely built metropolis nudging highs modestly upward from historical March averages of 24-25°C. Recent model updates show minimal spread—standard deviation under 1.5°C—differentiating leaders via subtle cloud cover variations and diurnal heating rates, with 30°C+ odds low absent unexpected ridging. Official China Meteorological Administration outlooks align, emphasizing frontal boundary risks that could shave 1-2°C off peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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