Trader consensus on Tokyo's March 19 high temperature hinges on a razor-thin split between 17°C and 18°C, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast ensemble averaging 17.2–17.8°C under a stabilizing high-pressure system ushering mild southerly airflow. This edges out 16°C bets, as global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on above-seasonal norms—historically around 13°C for mid-March—boosted by urban heat island effects and low wind shear. Differentiating factors include minor cloud cover discrepancies in short-range runs, with 1–2°C model spread from boundary layer mixing; any afternoon clearing could tip toward 18°C, while overcast persistence favors 17°C, underscoring typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 19 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Tokio el 19 de marzo?
17°C 34%
18°C 33%
16°C 19%
19°C 10%
$36,844 Vol.
$36,844 Vol.
11°C o menos
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
19%
17°C
34%
18°C
33%
19°C
10%
20°C
2%
21°C o más
1%
17°C 34%
18°C 33%
16°C 19%
19°C 10%
$36,844 Vol.
$36,844 Vol.
11°C o menos
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
19%
17°C
34%
18°C
33%
19°C
10%
20°C
2%
21°C o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 15, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Tokyo's March 19 high temperature hinges on a razor-thin split between 17°C and 18°C, driven by the Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast ensemble averaging 17.2–17.8°C under a stabilizing high-pressure system ushering mild southerly airflow. This edges out 16°C bets, as global models like ECMWF and GFS converge on above-seasonal norms—historically around 13°C for mid-March—boosted by urban heat island effects and low wind shear. Differentiating factors include minor cloud cover discrepancies in short-range runs, with 1–2°C model spread from boundary layer mixing; any afternoon clearing could tip toward 18°C, while overcast persistence favors 17°C, underscoring typical spring forecast uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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