Trader consensus heavily favors a Taipei high of 23°C on March 19, driven by Central Weather Administration forecasts projecting mild spring conditions with daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s amid weakening northeasterly winds. Historical March data from the CWA shows average highs around 23°C, aligning with recent trends of 21-24°C amid lingering cool fronts, though diurnal temperature ranges often peak mid-afternoon due to urban heat island effects in Taipei. Lower odds for 24°C or above reflect subdued solar insolation from partial cloud cover in ensemble models, while cooler outcomes like 22°C gain traction from overnight lows dipping to 18°C; upcoming hourly updates could shift probabilities as models converge on convective stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 19?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 19?
23°C 62%
22°C 22.4%
21°C 17.1%
24°C 14%
$10,315 Vol.
$10,315 Vol.
21°C
10%
22°C
22%
23°C
62%
24°C
18%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
1%
23°C 62%
22°C 22.4%
21°C 17.1%
24°C 14%
$10,315 Vol.
$10,315 Vol.
21°C
10%
22°C
22%
23°C
62%
24°C
18%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 2:34 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a Taipei high of 23°C on March 19, driven by Central Weather Administration forecasts projecting mild spring conditions with daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s amid weakening northeasterly winds. Historical March data from the CWA shows average highs around 23°C, aligning with recent trends of 21-24°C amid lingering cool fronts, though diurnal temperature ranges often peak mid-afternoon due to urban heat island effects in Taipei. Lower odds for 24°C or above reflect subdued solar insolation from partial cloud cover in ensemble models, while cooler outcomes like 22°C gain traction from overnight lows dipping to 18°C; upcoming hourly updates could shift probabilities as models converge on convective stability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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