Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28°C (29%) and 29°C (33%) for Sao Paulo's March 23 high, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting averages near 28.5°C amid partial cloud cover and southerly winds moderating afternoon heating. INMET's latest forecast pegs the peak at 28°C with 60% sun probability, while Climatempo edges toward 29°C, reflecting urban heat island effects at the official measurement station (Campo de Marte). Historical March norms hover at 28-29°C, but recent model runs show low spread, sidelining 30°C+ odds below 25% due to suppressed instability and no heat dome signals. Key watch: hourly updates from 2-5 PM local time for convective bursts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 23?
28°C 35%
29°C 33%
30°C 17%
27°C 12.5%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
29%
29°C
33%
30°C
17%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 35%
29°C 33%
30°C 17%
27°C 12.5%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
29%
29°C
33%
30°C
17%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28°C (29%) and 29°C (33%) for Sao Paulo's March 23 high, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting averages near 28.5°C amid partial cloud cover and southerly winds moderating afternoon heating. INMET's latest forecast pegs the peak at 28°C with 60% sun probability, while Climatempo edges toward 29°C, reflecting urban heat island effects at the official measurement station (Campo de Marte). Historical March norms hover at 28-29°C, but recent model runs show low spread, sidelining 30°C+ odds below 25% due to suppressed instability and no heat dome signals. Key watch: hourly updates from 2-5 PM local time for convective bursts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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