Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 22-24°C for Buenos Aires on March 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering tightly in this range—ECMWF at 24°C, GFS at 22°C, and SMN Argentina projecting 23°C amid model convergence. Differentiating factors include a moderating southerly airflow from a weakening La Niña pattern, reducing advection of warmer northerly air, coupled with increased low-level cloud cover limiting solar insolation by 10-20% per satellite observations. Recent 12Z model runs trimmed earlier warm biases, boosting 23°C odds, while historical March 23 averages (23.5°C) and urban heat island effects add slight upside risk to 24°C; resolution hinges on 00Z updates before the date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Buenos Aires el 23 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Buenos Aires el 23 de marzo?
24°C 26%
23°C 24%
22°C 18%
25°C 12%
19°C o menos
8%
20°C
3%
21°C
7%
22°C
18%
23°C
24%
24°C
26%
25°C
12%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C o más
1%
24°C 26%
23°C 24%
22°C 18%
25°C 12%
19°C o menos
8%
20°C
3%
21°C
7%
22°C
18%
23°C
24%
24°C
26%
25°C
12%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
1%
29°C o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 22-24°C for Buenos Aires on March 23, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering tightly in this range—ECMWF at 24°C, GFS at 22°C, and SMN Argentina projecting 23°C amid model convergence. Differentiating factors include a moderating southerly airflow from a weakening La Niña pattern, reducing advection of warmer northerly air, coupled with increased low-level cloud cover limiting solar insolation by 10-20% per satellite observations. Recent 12Z model runs trimmed earlier warm biases, boosting 23°C odds, while historical March 23 averages (23.5°C) and urban heat island effects add slight upside risk to 24°C; resolution hinges on 00Z updates before the date.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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