Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Miami high of 82-83°F (28%) over 80-81°F (26.5%) and 84-85°F (22.5%) for March 27, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the peak near 82°F amid persistent southerly winds and warm sea surface temperatures around 78°F in the Straits of Florida. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering in the low 80s, but slight divergences arise from sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 80-81°F via coastal cooling, while delayed breezes favor 84-85°F under building cumulus cover. Historical March 27 averages hover at 80°F, with current neutral ENSO conditions supporting above-normal odds for the upper 80s if high pressure strengthens. Upcoming 18Z model runs could shift these closely matched implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 27?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 27?
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 23%
78-79°F 20%
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
4%
90°F or higher
2%
82-83°F 28%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 23%
78-79°F 20%
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
28%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
4%
90°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a Miami high of 82-83°F (28%) over 80-81°F (26.5%) and 84-85°F (22.5%) for March 27, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast pinning the peak near 82°F amid persistent southerly winds and warm sea surface temperatures around 78°F in the Straits of Florida. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering in the low 80s, but slight divergences arise from sea breeze timing—earlier onshore flow could cap peaks at 80-81°F via coastal cooling, while delayed breezes favor 84-85°F under building cumulus cover. Historical March 27 averages hover at 80°F, with current neutral ENSO conditions supporting above-normal odds for the upper 80s if high pressure strengthens. Upcoming 18Z model runs could shift these closely matched implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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