Ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models drive the razor-thin odds between 50-53°F highs in Chicago on March 28, with their blended guidance centering around 51°F amid a mild southerly flow ahead of an approaching low-pressure system. Trader consensus reflects this tight model spread—GFS ensembles slightly favor 52°F while Euro leans cooler at 50°F—exacerbated by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and partial cloud cover, which could cap peaks by 1-2°F. Historical March 28 norms hover near 48°F, but current jet stream ridging supports the warmer outlook; watch 18Z model runs for shifts as diurnal heating patterns refine. Lower odds for sub-50°F stem from fading cold-air advection signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 28?
50-51°F 26%
52-53°F 25%
48-49°F 20%
46-47°F 14%
43°F or below
5%
44-45°F
11%
46-47°F
14%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
26%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
50-51°F 26%
52-53°F 25%
48-49°F 20%
46-47°F 14%
43°F or below
5%
44-45°F
11%
46-47°F
14%
48-49°F
20%
50-51°F
26%
52-53°F
25%
54-55°F
12%
56-57°F
6%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
2%
62°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA and ECMWF models drive the razor-thin odds between 50-53°F highs in Chicago on March 28, with their blended guidance centering around 51°F amid a mild southerly flow ahead of an approaching low-pressure system. Trader consensus reflects this tight model spread—GFS ensembles slightly favor 52°F while Euro leans cooler at 50°F—exacerbated by uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and partial cloud cover, which could cap peaks by 1-2°F. Historical March 28 norms hover near 48°F, but current jet stream ridging supports the warmer outlook; watch 18Z model runs for shifts as diurnal heating patterns refine. Lower odds for sub-50°F stem from fading cold-air advection signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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