Latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and National Weather Service forecasts point to a high-pressure ridge building over Texas, driving southerly winds and boosting Dallas-area highs to 68-72°F on March 28, underpinning the 48.5% market-implied odds for 68°F or higher. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles from recent 12z runs converge on this warmer outcome, with mean projections near 70°F at DFW Airport—the official measurement site—contrasting earlier cooler biases amid lingering frontal influences. Historical late-March norms average 71°F, but trader caution reflects 20-30% ensemble spread allowing dips to 64-67°F (31% combined odds), tied to potential cloud cover or timing of peak heating. Upcoming 00z updates could refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 28?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 28?
68°F or higher 48%
66-67°F 20%
64-65°F 13%
62-63°F 8%
49°F or below
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
17%
68°F or higher
48%
68°F or higher 48%
66-67°F 20%
64-65°F 13%
62-63°F 8%
49°F or below
1%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
1%
54-55°F
1%
56-57°F
2%
58-59°F
6%
60-61°F
7%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
13%
66-67°F
17%
68°F or higher
48%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and National Weather Service forecasts point to a high-pressure ridge building over Texas, driving southerly winds and boosting Dallas-area highs to 68-72°F on March 28, underpinning the 48.5% market-implied odds for 68°F or higher. GFS and ECMWF model ensembles from recent 12z runs converge on this warmer outcome, with mean projections near 70°F at DFW Airport—the official measurement site—contrasting earlier cooler biases amid lingering frontal influences. Historical late-March norms average 71°F, but trader caution reflects 20-30% ensemble spread allowing dips to 64-67°F (31% combined odds), tied to potential cloud cover or timing of peak heating. Upcoming 00z updates could refine these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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