Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Ankara on March 29, with 11°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid clustered odds for 9–12°C, driven by divergent global model ensembles. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs project highs of 10–12°C under a weak high-pressure ridge over Central Anatolia, following cooler-than-average March trends influenced by lingering cold air masses from the north; observed highs yesterday reached only 9°C amid cloudy conditions. Differentiating factors include potential diurnal warming from clearer skies versus persistent low-level clouds, with historical March averages around 12°C providing context for mild variability. New model updates from NOAA and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within 24 hours could sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 29?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 29?
10°C 28%
9°C 20%
11°C 19%
12°C 12%
4°C or below
2%
5°C
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
7%
8°C
12%
9°C
20%
10°C
22%
11°C
19%
12°C
12%
13°C
10%
14°C or higher
3%
10°C 28%
9°C 20%
11°C 19%
12°C 12%
4°C or below
2%
5°C
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
7%
8°C
12%
9°C
20%
10°C
22%
11°C
19%
12°C
12%
13°C
10%
14°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range temperature forecasts for Ankara on March 29, with 11°C leading at 28.5% implied probability amid clustered odds for 9–12°C, driven by divergent global model ensembles. The latest ECMWF and GFS runs project highs of 10–12°C under a weak high-pressure ridge over Central Anatolia, following cooler-than-average March trends influenced by lingering cold air masses from the north; observed highs yesterday reached only 9°C amid cloudy conditions. Differentiating factors include potential diurnal warming from clearer skies versus persistent low-level clouds, with historical March averages around 12°C providing context for mild variability. New model updates from NOAA and Turkish State Meteorological Service expected within 24 hours could sharpen the outlook as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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