Latest forecast guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS shows Shanghai's highest temperature on March 29 clustering around 18-19°C, driving trader consensus with 31% implied probability on 18°C and 24% on 19°C. Mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover amid neutral ENSO conditions support these levels, but ensemble spreads of 2-3°C reflect uncertainty from potential morning fog, urban heat island effects, and diel temperature cycles. A weak cold front earlier this week capped prior runs near 20°C, now refined lower. Key differentiator: hourly observations and afternoon model updates expected today, with historical late-March averages at 16-18°C providing baseline context for this tight race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 29?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 29?
18°C 31%
19°C 24%
17°C 15%
20°C 10%
$11,592 Vol.
$11,592 Vol.
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
15%
18°C
31%
19°C
24%
20°C
10%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
2%
18°C 31%
19°C 24%
17°C 15%
20°C 10%
$11,592 Vol.
$11,592 Vol.
13°C or below
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
15%
18°C
31%
19°C
24%
20°C
10%
21°C
7%
22°C
5%
23°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS shows Shanghai's highest temperature on March 29 clustering around 18-19°C, driving trader consensus with 31% implied probability on 18°C and 24% on 19°C. Mild southerly winds and partial cloud cover amid neutral ENSO conditions support these levels, but ensemble spreads of 2-3°C reflect uncertainty from potential morning fog, urban heat island effects, and diel temperature cycles. A weak cold front earlier this week capped prior runs near 20°C, now refined lower. Key differentiator: hourly observations and afternoon model updates expected today, with historical late-March averages at 16-18°C providing baseline context for this tight race.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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