Tight odds clustering around 23-27°C stem from ensemble forecasts by ECMWF and GFS models projecting Beijing's March 26 high near 25°C, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge directing southerly winds that advect warm, moist air from southern China. Late-March historical averages hover at 16-18°C, but recent warm anomalies—exceeding norms by 5-7°C—elevate 25°C to the market favorite, representing an 80th percentile event. Differentiating factors include diurnal cloud evolution, where persistent sunshine boosts peaks to 26-27°C via enhanced solar insolation, versus afternoon convective showers capping at 23-24°C; jet stream waviness adds 2°C uncertainty, per NOAA analyses. Traders eye 00Z/12Z model runs for cold frontal risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 26?
25°C 29%
24°C 22%
26°C 21%
23°C 20%
21°C or below
3%
22°C
17%
23°C
20%
24°C
22%
25°C
29%
26°C
21%
27°C
18%
28°C
16%
29°C
16%
30°C
16%
31°C or higher
2%
25°C 29%
24°C 22%
26°C 21%
23°C 20%
21°C or below
3%
22°C
17%
23°C
20%
24°C
22%
25°C
29%
26°C
21%
27°C
18%
28°C
16%
29°C
16%
30°C
16%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tight odds clustering around 23-27°C stem from ensemble forecasts by ECMWF and GFS models projecting Beijing's March 26 high near 25°C, fueled by a persistent high-pressure ridge directing southerly winds that advect warm, moist air from southern China. Late-March historical averages hover at 16-18°C, but recent warm anomalies—exceeding norms by 5-7°C—elevate 25°C to the market favorite, representing an 80th percentile event. Differentiating factors include diurnal cloud evolution, where persistent sunshine boosts peaks to 26-27°C via enhanced solar insolation, versus afternoon convective showers capping at 23-24°C; jet stream waviness adds 2°C uncertainty, per NOAA analyses. Traders eye 00Z/12Z model runs for cold frontal risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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