Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 29 high temperature remains tightly split, with 21°C or higher edging out 11°C or below at 25.5% versus 24.5% market-implied odds, driven by divergent short-range weather models amid an incoming frontal system over Sichuan province. China Meteorological Administration forecasts center around 19-20°C, aligning with ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS, but variability stems from cloud cover forecasts—persistent stratus could suppress highs below 15°C via reduced solar insolation, while clearing skies boost them above 20°C, amplified by Chengdu's urban heat island effect. Historical late-March averages hover near 18°C, yet recent northerly winds introduce cooling risk, fueling bets on extremes as final model runs loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 29?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 29?
21°C or higher 26%
20°C 18%
18°C 18%
19°C 18%
11°C or below
3%
12°C
11%
13°C
11%
14°C
15%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
26%
21°C or higher 26%
20°C 18%
18°C 18%
19°C 18%
11°C or below
3%
12°C
11%
13°C
11%
14°C
15%
15°C
17%
16°C
17%
17°C
17%
18°C
18%
19°C
18%
20°C
18%
21°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:27 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 29 high temperature remains tightly split, with 21°C or higher edging out 11°C or below at 25.5% versus 24.5% market-implied odds, driven by divergent short-range weather models amid an incoming frontal system over Sichuan province. China Meteorological Administration forecasts center around 19-20°C, aligning with ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS, but variability stems from cloud cover forecasts—persistent stratus could suppress highs below 15°C via reduced solar insolation, while clearing skies boost them above 20°C, amplified by Chengdu's urban heat island effect. Historical late-March averages hover near 18°C, yet recent northerly winds introduce cooling risk, fueling bets on extremes as final model runs loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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