Trader consensus tilts modestly toward a high of 24°C or higher in Chengdu on March 28 (28.5% implied probability), driven by recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating southerly winds and ridging aloft that could push temperatures 3–5°C above the late-March climatological average of 19–20°C. However, closely trailing odds for 22°C and 23°C (19.5% each) reflect model spread from variable cloud cover and potential weak frontal passages, as seen in updated CMA guidance showing mid-20s peaks under partly sunny skies. Differentiation hinges on low-level moisture advection—warmer if dry southwesterlies dominate, cooler amid stratiform clouds—amid historical volatility where March highs range 15–28°C. Watch 0000Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 28?
21°C 25%
20°C 24%
22°C 20%
23°C 20%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
11%
16°C
5%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
24%
21°C
25%
22°C
20%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
18%
21°C 25%
20°C 24%
22°C 20%
23°C 20%
14°C or below
3%
15°C
11%
16°C
5%
17°C
18%
18°C
19%
19°C
19%
20°C
24%
21°C
25%
22°C
20%
23°C
20%
24°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts modestly toward a high of 24°C or higher in Chengdu on March 28 (28.5% implied probability), driven by recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts indicating southerly winds and ridging aloft that could push temperatures 3–5°C above the late-March climatological average of 19–20°C. However, closely trailing odds for 22°C and 23°C (19.5% each) reflect model spread from variable cloud cover and potential weak frontal passages, as seen in updated CMA guidance showing mid-20s peaks under partly sunny skies. Differentiation hinges on low-level moisture advection—warmer if dry southwesterlies dominate, cooler amid stratiform clouds—amid historical volatility where March highs range 15–28°C. Watch 0000Z model runs for shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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