Trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with the European ECMWF and Canadian GEM projecting Toronto's March 24 high between 4°C and 6°C, driving near-even implied probabilities for those bins at 26-28.5%. Recent 12Z model runs show a slight bullish shift toward 5-6°C from ridging aloft and moderating southerly flow, edging out 4°C amid historical late-March averages of 5-7°C at Pearson Airport. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread from cloud cover variability and frontal timing, per Environment Canada guidance, with sub-3°C outliers low due to absent cold outbreaks. Traders eye 00Z updates for resolution clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Toronto el 24 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Toronto el 24 de marzo?
5°C 29%
6°C o más 28%
4°C 26%
3°C 14%
-4°C o menos
1%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
3%
0°C
2%
1°C
4%
2°C
8%
3°C
12%
4°C
26%
5°C
29%
6°C o más
28%
5°C 29%
6°C o más 28%
4°C 26%
3°C 14%
-4°C o menos
1%
-3°C
2%
-2°C
2%
-1°C
3%
0°C
2%
1°C
4%
2°C
8%
3°C
12%
4°C
26%
5°C
29%
6°C o más
28%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with the European ECMWF and Canadian GEM projecting Toronto's March 24 high between 4°C and 6°C, driving near-even implied probabilities for those bins at 26-28.5%. Recent 12Z model runs show a slight bullish shift toward 5-6°C from ridging aloft and moderating southerly flow, edging out 4°C amid historical late-March averages of 5-7°C at Pearson Airport. Differentiating factors include ensemble spread from cloud cover variability and frontal timing, per Environment Canada guidance, with sub-3°C outliers low due to absent cold outbreaks. Traders eye 00Z updates for resolution clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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