Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 56-57°F (32.5% implied probability) as Seattle's highest temperature on March 28, closely trailed by 58-59°F (25.5%) and 54-55°F (23.5%), reflecting tight NOAA Weather Prediction Center ensemble guidance averaging 57°F under a weak upper-level ridge. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing from Puget Sound marine air, potential stratus cloud deck persistence, and timing of a Pacific low-pressure trough's approach, per latest GFS and ECMWF runs showing 1-2°F spreads. Historical March 28 norms hover at 56°F, with model uncertainty amplified by springtime jet stream waviness, keeping lower bins viable if onshore flow strengthens. Key watch: 18Z model updates Thursday.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seattle on March 28?
Highest temperature in Seattle on March 28?
56-57°F 33%
54-55°F 29%
58-59°F 26%
52-53°F 10%
51°F or below
9%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
56-57°F 33%
54-55°F 29%
58-59°F 26%
52-53°F 10%
51°F or below
9%
52-53°F
10%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
26%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
7%
64-65°F
7%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
2%
70°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward 56-57°F (32.5% implied probability) as Seattle's highest temperature on March 28, closely trailed by 58-59°F (25.5%) and 54-55°F (23.5%), reflecting tight NOAA Weather Prediction Center ensemble guidance averaging 57°F under a weak upper-level ridge. Differentiating factors include subtle variations in boundary layer mixing from Puget Sound marine air, potential stratus cloud deck persistence, and timing of a Pacific low-pressure trough's approach, per latest GFS and ECMWF runs showing 1-2°F spreads. Historical March 28 norms hover at 56°F, with model uncertainty amplified by springtime jet stream waviness, keeping lower bins viable if onshore flow strengthens. Key watch: 18Z model updates Thursday.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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