Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shenzhen high temperature around 26°C (29.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles forecasting peaks of 25-27°C amid a high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and southerly winds that advect warm, moist air from the South China Sea. This edges out 27°C (23%) and 25°C (21%), as urban heat island effects in the densely built metropolis amplify daytime heating beyond rural baselines, where March averages hover at 24°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon sea breezes capping peaks at 25°C versus prolonged sunshine pushing to 27°C, with minimal shower risk per CMA updates keeping lower outcomes under 20%. Model spread reflects uncertainty in peak-hour insolation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 28?
26°C 30%
27°C 26%
25°C 21%
24°C 19%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
9%
22°C
13%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C
21%
26°C
30%
27°C
26%
28°C
19%
29°C or higher
7%
26°C 30%
27°C 26%
25°C 21%
24°C 19%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
9%
22°C
13%
23°C
17%
24°C
19%
25°C
21%
26°C
30%
27°C
26%
28°C
19%
29°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:50 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Shenzhen high temperature around 26°C (29.5% implied probability), driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles forecasting peaks of 25-27°C amid a high-pressure ridge promoting clear skies and southerly winds that advect warm, moist air from the South China Sea. This edges out 27°C (23%) and 25°C (21%), as urban heat island effects in the densely built metropolis amplify daytime heating beyond rural baselines, where March averages hover at 24°C. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon sea breezes capping peaks at 25°C versus prolonged sunshine pushing to 27°C, with minimal shower risk per CMA updates keeping lower outcomes under 20%. Model spread reflects uncertainty in peak-hour insolation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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