Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting Paris's highest temperature on March 24 between 17°C and 19°C with mean values around 18°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe channeling mild Atlantic maritime air northward. Recent 00Z model runs show a slight warm bias shift from yesterday's cooler outputs, boosting probabilities for 17-19°C over 16°C or lower, amid a 2-3°C spread reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing and cloud cover. Historically, March 24 highs average 12-13°C (Météo-France normals), but this setup favors above-normal warmth, differentiating top outcomes by subtle jet stream positioning and soil moisture feedbacks. Upcoming 12Z updates could sway the razor-thin 27% leads for 17°C and 19°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en París el 24 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en París el 24 de marzo?
18°C 30%
17°C 27%
19°C 24%
20°C 18%
12°C o menos
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
15%
15°C
15%
16°C
17%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
17%
21°C
15%
22°C o más
3%
18°C 30%
17°C 27%
19°C 24%
20°C 18%
12°C o menos
1%
13°C
3%
14°C
15%
15°C
15%
16°C
17%
17°C
27%
18°C
24%
19°C
24%
20°C
17%
21°C
15%
22°C o más
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, projecting Paris's highest temperature on March 24 between 17°C and 19°C with mean values around 18°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge over western Europe channeling mild Atlantic maritime air northward. Recent 00Z model runs show a slight warm bias shift from yesterday's cooler outputs, boosting probabilities for 17-19°C over 16°C or lower, amid a 2-3°C spread reflecting uncertainty in frontal timing and cloud cover. Historically, March 24 highs average 12-13°C (Météo-France normals), but this setup favors above-normal warmth, differentiating top outcomes by subtle jet stream positioning and soil moisture feedbacks. Upcoming 12Z updates could sway the razor-thin 27% leads for 17°C and 19°C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes