Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in weather ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen's March 27 high, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering outputs between 26-29°C amid a strengthening subtropical ridge. Leading implied probabilities favor 29°C and 28°C due to recent model runs projecting enhanced solar insolation and low convective activity, potentially overcoming urban heat island moderation from Pearl River Delta humidity. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breeze strength—stronger onshore flow caps at 26-27°C via boundary layer cooling—versus persistent highs near 29°C under clear skies and weak winds, as seen in analogous March 2024 anomalies exceeding 1°C above the 25-27°C historical norm. Key watch: 00Z model updates Thursday.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 27?
29°C 22%
27°C 21%
26°C 20%
28°C 17%
21°C or below
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C
7%
25°C
11%
26°C
21%
27°C
21%
28°C
17%
29°C
22%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
2%
29°C 22%
27°C 21%
26°C 20%
28°C 17%
21°C or below
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
8%
24°C
7%
25°C
11%
26°C
21%
27°C
21%
28°C
17%
29°C
22%
30°C
11%
31°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:09 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in weather ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen's March 27 high, with GFS and ECMWF models clustering outputs between 26-29°C amid a strengthening subtropical ridge. Leading implied probabilities favor 29°C and 28°C due to recent model runs projecting enhanced solar insolation and low convective activity, potentially overcoming urban heat island moderation from Pearl River Delta humidity. Differentiating factors include afternoon sea breeze strength—stronger onshore flow caps at 26-27°C via boundary layer cooling—versus persistent highs near 29°C under clear skies and weak winds, as seen in analogous March 2024 anomalies exceeding 1°C above the 25-27°C historical norm. Key watch: 00Z model updates Thursday.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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