Trader sentiment on Chicago's highest temperature March 23 clusters tightly around 42-45°F, driven by consensus across NOAA's GFS, ECMWF, and NAM models projecting peaks of 43-44°F under building high pressure and sunny skies. The National Weather Service forecast aligns at 44°F, following a recent cold frontal passage that cleared clouds and moderated Lake Michigan's cooling influence. Differentiating the razor-thin 42-43°F (25.5%) lead from 44-45°F (23.5%) hinges on ensemble spread in boundary layer mixing and insolation—full afternoon sunshine could push toward 45°F, while any persistent high clouds cap at 42°F. La Niña's cooler Midwest pattern tempers historical 46°F averages, with 18z updates pivotal for odds shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 23 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Chicago el 23 de marzo?
42-43°F 26%
44-45°F 24%
40-41°F 18%
46-47°F 14.9%
$17,273 Vol.
$17,273 Vol.
35°F o menos
1%
36-37°F
2%
38-39°F
7%
40-41°F
18%
42-43°F
26%
44-45°F
24%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
4%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
1%
54°F o más
1%
42-43°F 26%
44-45°F 24%
40-41°F 18%
46-47°F 14.9%
$17,273 Vol.
$17,273 Vol.
35°F o menos
1%
36-37°F
2%
38-39°F
7%
40-41°F
18%
42-43°F
26%
44-45°F
24%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
4%
50-51°F
2%
52-53°F
1%
54°F o más
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Chicago's highest temperature March 23 clusters tightly around 42-45°F, driven by consensus across NOAA's GFS, ECMWF, and NAM models projecting peaks of 43-44°F under building high pressure and sunny skies. The National Weather Service forecast aligns at 44°F, following a recent cold frontal passage that cleared clouds and moderated Lake Michigan's cooling influence. Differentiating the razor-thin 42-43°F (25.5%) lead from 44-45°F (23.5%) hinges on ensemble spread in boundary layer mixing and insolation—full afternoon sunshine could push toward 45°F, while any persistent high clouds cap at 42°F. La Niña's cooler Midwest pattern tempers historical 46°F averages, with 18z updates pivotal for odds shift.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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