Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a Paris high of 10-11°C on March 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 25.5% and 23.0%, reflecting model means around 10.5°C amid a northerly airflow pattern suppressing temperatures below the late-March climatological average of 12°C. Differentiating factors include slight ensemble spreads of 1-2°C—warmer outliers at 12-13°C (19-18%) tied to potential high-pressure ridging, versus cooler 8-9°C (16.5-19.5%) from persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks per Météo-France outlooks. Low odds for extremes (15°C+ at 2.1%, ≤5°C at 1.6%) align with historical variability, as urban heat island effects offer minimal daytime boost under overcast skies. Key watch: afternoon model updates could shift odds by 5-10% before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Paris on March 27?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 27?
10°C 26%
11°C 23%
12°C 20%
9°C 20%
5°C or below
2%
6°C
16%
7°C
15%
8°C
16%
9°C
20%
10°C
26%
11°C
23%
12°C
20%
13°C
18%
14°C
16%
15°C or higher
2%
10°C 26%
11°C 23%
12°C 20%
9°C 20%
5°C or below
2%
6°C
16%
7°C
15%
8°C
16%
9°C
20%
10°C
26%
11°C
23%
12°C
20%
13°C
18%
14°C
16%
15°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models drive trader consensus toward a Paris high of 10-11°C on March 27, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 25.5% and 23.0%, reflecting model means around 10.5°C amid a northerly airflow pattern suppressing temperatures below the late-March climatological average of 12°C. Differentiating factors include slight ensemble spreads of 1-2°C—warmer outliers at 12-13°C (19-18%) tied to potential high-pressure ridging, versus cooler 8-9°C (16.5-19.5%) from persistent cloud cover and light precipitation risks per Météo-France outlooks. Low odds for extremes (15°C+ at 2.1%, ≤5°C at 1.6%) align with historical variability, as urban heat island effects offer minimal daytime boost under overcast skies. Key watch: afternoon model updates could shift odds by 5-10% before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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