Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C (37.5% implied probability) and 11°C (36%) as the highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27, reflecting tight uncertainty in the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble runs, which show daily highs clustering in this range amid mild westerly flow from the Atlantic. Recent 00Z model updates indicate subtle divergences: ECMWF leans warmer due to anticipated afternoon insolation piercing variable cloud cover, while GFS emphasizes cooler boundary layer stability from lingering frontal moisture. Historical March norms for Warsaw average 8-10°C, but current positive temperature anomalies elevate expectations. Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) observations will resolve the market, with ECMWF's next 12Z update likely to sway trader sentiment before daily highs peak around 1400 UTC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27?
12°C 38%
11°C 37%
10°C 8%
13°C 8%
$18,267 Vol.
$18,267 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
8%
11°C
37%
12°C
38%
13°C
8%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
3%
12°C 38%
11°C 37%
10°C 8%
13°C 8%
$18,267 Vol.
$18,267 Vol.
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
8%
11°C
37%
12°C
38%
13°C
8%
14°C
6%
15°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:17 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 12°C (37.5% implied probability) and 11°C (36%) as the highest temperature in Warsaw on March 27, reflecting tight uncertainty in the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble runs, which show daily highs clustering in this range amid mild westerly flow from the Atlantic. Recent 00Z model updates indicate subtle divergences: ECMWF leans warmer due to anticipated afternoon insolation piercing variable cloud cover, while GFS emphasizes cooler boundary layer stability from lingering frontal moisture. Historical March norms for Warsaw average 8-10°C, but current positive temperature anomalies elevate expectations. Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) observations will resolve the market, with ECMWF's next 12Z update likely to sway trader sentiment before daily highs peak around 1400 UTC.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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