Trader consensus heavily favors 15°C as London's highest temperature on March 23, with 53.5% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast projecting a daytime peak of 14-16°C under mild westerly airflow from the Atlantic. Ensemble models like ECMWF and UKMO show clustered outputs around this range, reflecting a high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions after recent wet spells. Historical March maxima in London average 12°C but often hit 15°C during positive North Atlantic Oscillation phases, aligning with current jet stream positioning. Recent GFS updates nudged probabilities upward from 14°C by 0.5°C, boosting 15°C odds amid low volatility in short-range guidance, though cloud cover introduces minor uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Londres el 23 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Londres el 23 de marzo?
15°C 52%
14°C 25%
16°C 9.6%
13°C 5.3%
$45,125 Vol.
$45,125 Vol.
9°C o menos
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
25%
15°C
52%
16°C
10%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C o más
<1%
15°C 52%
14°C 25%
16°C 9.6%
13°C 5.3%
$45,125 Vol.
$45,125 Vol.
9°C o menos
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
5%
14°C
25%
15°C
52%
16°C
10%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 15°C as London's highest temperature on March 23, with 53.5% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office forecast projecting a daytime peak of 14-16°C under mild westerly airflow from the Atlantic. Ensemble models like ECMWF and UKMO show clustered outputs around this range, reflecting a high-pressure ridge stabilizing conditions after recent wet spells. Historical March maxima in London average 12°C but often hit 15°C during positive North Atlantic Oscillation phases, aligning with current jet stream positioning. Recent GFS updates nudged probabilities upward from 14°C by 0.5°C, boosting 15°C odds amid low volatility in short-range guidance, though cloud cover introduces minor uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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