Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Austin's March 27 high temperature clustering around 86-89°F, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF forecast ensembles converging on peak afternoon readings near 87°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. This high-pressure pattern promotes subsidence, clear skies, and efficient solar heating, pushing 2-5°F above the late-March climatological average of 78-82°F. Differentiating the razor-thin 86-87°F (24.5%) and 88-89°F (24.0%) leads are subtle model spreads: GFS leans slightly warmer with drier boundary layers enhancing diurnal warming, while Euro ensembles hedge cooler due to lingering low-level moisture potential. NWS guidance and hourly updates through midday March 27 will sharpen resolution amid 2-3°F inherent uncertainty from microscale urban effects and timing of peak insolation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 27?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 27?
86-87°F 25%
88-89°F 25%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 16%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
25%
88-89°F
25%
90-91°F
16%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
12%
86-87°F 25%
88-89°F 25%
84-85°F 21%
90-91°F 16%
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
7%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
21%
86-87°F
25%
88-89°F
25%
90-91°F
16%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Austin's March 27 high temperature clustering around 86-89°F, driven by the latest NOAA and ECMWF forecast ensembles converging on peak afternoon readings near 87°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge over Texas. This high-pressure pattern promotes subsidence, clear skies, and efficient solar heating, pushing 2-5°F above the late-March climatological average of 78-82°F. Differentiating the razor-thin 86-87°F (24.5%) and 88-89°F (24.0%) leads are subtle model spreads: GFS leans slightly warmer with drier boundary layers enhancing diurnal warming, while Euro ensembles hedge cooler due to lingering low-level moisture potential. NWS guidance and hourly updates through midday March 27 will sharpen resolution amid 2-3°F inherent uncertainty from microscale urban effects and timing of peak insolation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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