Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward highs of 72-77°F for Austin on March 28, driven by the latest NOAA ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on a mean around 74°F amid a weak upper-level ridge fostering southerly flow and afternoon heating. Differentiating the closely matched leading bins—72-73°F at 22% implied probability versus 74-77°F clusters—are subtle model divergences: the European ECMWF leans slightly cooler due to anticipated mid-afternoon cirrus cloud cover, while GFS favors warmer outcomes from enhanced boundary layer mixing under partly sunny skies. Historical March 28 normals hover at 75°F, but dry air and light winds introduce 2-3°F uncertainty, with the 00Z model runs tomorrow poised to sharpen odds ahead of official observations from Austin-Bergstrom Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 28?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 28?
80°F or higher 23%
72-73°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
74-75°F 19%
61°F or below
8%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
17%
80°F or higher
23%
80°F or higher 23%
72-73°F 22%
70-71°F 21%
74-75°F 19%
61°F or below
8%
62-63°F
9%
64-65°F
9%
66-67°F
10%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
21%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
18%
78-79°F
17%
80°F or higher
23%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward highs of 72-77°F for Austin on March 28, driven by the latest NOAA ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models, which converge on a mean around 74°F amid a weak upper-level ridge fostering southerly flow and afternoon heating. Differentiating the closely matched leading bins—72-73°F at 22% implied probability versus 74-77°F clusters—are subtle model divergences: the European ECMWF leans slightly cooler due to anticipated mid-afternoon cirrus cloud cover, while GFS favors warmer outcomes from enhanced boundary layer mixing under partly sunny skies. Historical March 28 normals hover at 75°F, but dry air and light winds introduce 2-3°F uncertainty, with the 00Z model runs tomorrow poised to sharpen odds ahead of official observations from Austin-Bergstrom Airport.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes