Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 21°C high in Beijing on March 28 (27.5% implied probability), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs in the 19–23°C range amid mild southerly flows and limited cold air intrusion from Siberia. This positioning reflects a recent warm anomaly in northern China, with March averages typically around 12°C but current conditions favoring above-normal temperatures under high-pressure ridging. High uncertainty—evident in the fragmented distribution—stems from key variables like cloud cover evolution, afternoon showers (boosting 18–20°C odds), or unexpected northerly gusts (favoring 16°C or below at 5.5%). New 12Z model updates expected within hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 28?
21°C 27%
20°C 24%
22°C 18%
18°C 16%
16°C or below
6%
17°C
6%
18°C
16%
19°C
13%
20°C
19%
21°C
27%
22°C
18%
23°C
14%
24°C
6%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
2%
21°C 27%
20°C 24%
22°C 18%
18°C 16%
16°C or below
6%
17°C
6%
18°C
16%
19°C
13%
20°C
19%
21°C
27%
22°C
18%
23°C
14%
24°C
6%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:10 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 21°C high in Beijing on March 28 (27.5% implied probability), driven by the latest China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global forecast models like ECMWF and GFS, which project daytime highs in the 19–23°C range amid mild southerly flows and limited cold air intrusion from Siberia. This positioning reflects a recent warm anomaly in northern China, with March averages typically around 12°C but current conditions favoring above-normal temperatures under high-pressure ridging. High uncertainty—evident in the fragmented distribution—stems from key variables like cloud cover evolution, afternoon showers (boosting 18–20°C odds), or unexpected northerly gusts (favoring 16°C or below at 5.5%). New 12Z model updates expected within hours could sharpen probabilities as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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