Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Buenos Aires' March 25 high temperature clustering at 25-27°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 26°C amid a stable high-pressure system over the South Atlantic. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) Argentina's most recent outlook aligns closely, projecting a daytime peak near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds limiting convective cooling. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects boosting city readings by 1-2°C over rural stations, potential sea-breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata, and model spread of ±1.5°C reflecting uncertainty in afternoon cloud development. Historical March maxima average 26.2°C, reinforcing these market-implied odds as upcoming 12Z model updates loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 25?
25°C 26%
26°C 24%
27°C 16%
23°C 15%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
15%
24°C
12%
25°C
26%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
8%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
2%
25°C 26%
26°C 24%
27°C 16%
23°C 15%
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
15%
24°C
12%
25°C
26%
26°C
24%
27°C
22%
28°C
8%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Buenos Aires' March 25 high temperature clustering at 25-27°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 26°C amid a stable high-pressure system over the South Atlantic. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) Argentina's most recent outlook aligns closely, projecting a daytime peak near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds limiting convective cooling. Differentiating factors include urban heat island effects boosting city readings by 1-2°C over rural stations, potential sea-breeze moderation from the Río de la Plata, and model spread of ±1.5°C reflecting uncertainty in afternoon cloud development. Historical March maxima average 26.2°C, reinforcing these market-implied odds as upcoming 12Z model updates loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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