Ensemble weather models from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration point to a high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds into Wuhan on March 28, projecting peak temperatures around 22-24°C and driving the 46% implied probability for 22°C or higher as the leading outcome. Recent observations show Wuhan's March 26 high of 21.5°C amid clear skies, with short-range forecasts converging on continued mild conditions despite slight diurnal variability from urban heat effects in this humid subtropical climate. Lower odds for 21°C (21%) and 20°C (17.5%) reflect trader hedging against potential afternoon cloudiness or model divergence, while sub-18°C scenarios (<15% combined) appear unlikely given historical late-March averages of 18-20°C and no cold front signals. Updated guidance expected March 27 could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 28?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 28?
22°C or higher 45%
21°C 22%
20°C 18%
18°C 12%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
8%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
12%
19°C
12%
20°C
18%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
45%
22°C or higher 45%
21°C 22%
20°C 18%
18°C 12%
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
8%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
12%
19°C
12%
20°C
18%
21°C
22%
22°C or higher
45%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from ECMWF, GFS, and China Meteorological Administration point to a high-pressure ridge ushering southerly winds into Wuhan on March 28, projecting peak temperatures around 22-24°C and driving the 46% implied probability for 22°C or higher as the leading outcome. Recent observations show Wuhan's March 26 high of 21.5°C amid clear skies, with short-range forecasts converging on continued mild conditions despite slight diurnal variability from urban heat effects in this humid subtropical climate. Lower odds for 21°C (21%) and 20°C (17.5%) reflect trader hedging against potential afternoon cloudiness or model divergence, while sub-18°C scenarios (<15% combined) appear unlikely given historical late-March averages of 18-20°C and no cold front signals. Updated guidance expected March 27 could shift odds further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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