Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Madrid's highest temperature on March 29, with 14°C (24%) edging out 15°C (22%) amid ensemble predictions clustering in the mid-teens Celsius. Latest runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) show a consensus around 13–16°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia moderating spring warmth, but differentiated by potential cloud cover and northerly winds introducing variability in diurnal heating. Spain's AEMET agency reports current observational trends near 15°C averages, with historical March late-month maxima typically 14–17°C under neutral ENSO conditions. New model updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as the date nears resolution based on official Madrid-Barajas Airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 29?
15°C 28%
14°C 24%
13°C 23%
12°C 22%
11°C or below
19%
12°C
17%
13°C
17%
14°C
24%
15°C
22%
16°C
19%
17°C
14%
18°C
11%
19°C
9%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
15°C 28%
14°C 24%
13°C 23%
12°C 22%
11°C or below
19%
12°C
17%
13°C
17%
14°C
24%
15°C
22%
16°C
19%
17°C
14%
18°C
11%
19°C
9%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in forecast models for Madrid's highest temperature on March 29, with 14°C (24%) edging out 15°C (22%) amid ensemble predictions clustering in the mid-teens Celsius. Latest runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) show a consensus around 13–16°C, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia moderating spring warmth, but differentiated by potential cloud cover and northerly winds introducing variability in diurnal heating. Spain's AEMET agency reports current observational trends near 15°C averages, with historical March late-month maxima typically 14–17°C under neutral ENSO conditions. New model updates expected within 24 hours could sharpen probabilities as the date nears resolution based on official Madrid-Barajas Airport measurements.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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