Trader consensus clusters tightly around 17°C (25.5%) and 18°C (24.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in this range under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering mild advection of Atlantic air masses. Historical March highs at Madrid-Barajas average 16.5°C, but recent model runs show a slight upward bias from enhanced solar insolation and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating the leaders, 17°C aligns with conservative AEMET guidance accounting for urban heat island moderation, while 18°C reflects warmer GFS outliers sensitive to diurnal boundary layer evolution; 16°C and below gain from potential northerly outflows, though low-probability tails reflect climatological bounds. Watch 12Z updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 27?
17°C 26%
18°C 24%
16°C 18%
19°C 18%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
16%
15°C
16%
16°C
18%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
18%
20°C
14%
21°C
10%
22°C or higher
2%
17°C 26%
18°C 24%
16°C 18%
19°C 18%
12°C or below
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
16%
15°C
16%
16°C
18%
17°C
26%
18°C
24%
19°C
18%
20°C
14%
21°C
10%
22°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 17°C (25.5%) and 18°C (24.0%) for Madrid's highest temperature on March 27, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peaks in this range under a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia, fostering mild advection of Atlantic air masses. Historical March highs at Madrid-Barajas average 16.5°C, but recent model runs show a slight upward bias from enhanced solar insolation and minimal cloud interference. Differentiating the leaders, 17°C aligns with conservative AEMET guidance accounting for urban heat island moderation, while 18°C reflects warmer GFS outliers sensitive to diurnal boundary layer evolution; 16°C and below gain from potential northerly outflows, though low-probability tails reflect climatological bounds. Watch 12Z updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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