Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF currently cluster around a Houston high of 84-85°F on March 27, fueling its 24% implied probability amid tight competition with 82-83°F at 19%. A potent upper-level ridge over the southern Plains will drive subsidence warming and southerly Gulf winds, elevating temperatures well above the 77°F March climatology. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing efficiency and afternoon cumulus cloud cover: drier, clearer scenarios in some GFS ensemble members boost 86-87°F odds to 15%, while moister profiles temper peaks to 82-83°F. Traders eye the next 00z runs for shifts, as small convective timing variances could swing outcomes by 2-3°F.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
84-85°F 23%
82-83°F 19%
86-87°F 16%
78-79°F 14%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
12%
92-93°F
10%
94°F or higher
3%
84-85°F 23%
82-83°F 19%
86-87°F 16%
78-79°F 14%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
12%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
10%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
12%
90-91°F
12%
92-93°F
10%
94°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models from NOAA and ECMWF currently cluster around a Houston high of 84-85°F on March 27, fueling its 24% implied probability amid tight competition with 82-83°F at 19%. A potent upper-level ridge over the southern Plains will drive subsidence warming and southerly Gulf winds, elevating temperatures well above the 77°F March climatology. Key differentiators include boundary-layer mixing efficiency and afternoon cumulus cloud cover: drier, clearer scenarios in some GFS ensemble members boost 86-87°F odds to 15%, while moister profiles temper peaks to 82-83°F. Traders eye the next 00z runs for shifts, as small convective timing variances could swing outcomes by 2-3°F.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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