Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released in early May 2026, indicate an April global surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving the 94.3% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome as traders anchor to this authoritative metric. Sustained record-high equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures—the warmest April on record there per Copernicus—combined with the second-warmest global ocean April, fueled this warmth amid fading El Niño influences and ENSO-neutral transition. While ERA5 reanalysis reports a higher 1.43°C, discrepancies arise from methodological differences; final NOAA adjustments due mid-May could shift odds if late data reveals cooler polar or land readings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAbril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Abril 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 94.5%
1,20–1,24ºC 3.5%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.8%
>1.29ºC <1%
$330,381 Vol.
$330,381 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
94%
1,20–1,24ºC
4%
1,25–1,29 ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 94.5%
1,20–1,24ºC 3.5%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.8%
>1.29ºC <1%
$330,381 Vol.
$330,381 Vol.
10 may 2026
<1,10ºC
$54,723 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$61,134 Vol.
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$46,716 Vol.
94%
1,20–1,24ºC
$66,529 Vol.
4%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$57,056 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$44,222 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released in early May 2026, indicate an April global surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving the 94.3% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome as traders anchor to this authoritative metric. Sustained record-high equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures—the warmest April on record there per Copernicus—combined with the second-warmest global ocean April, fueled this warmth amid fading El Niño influences and ENSO-neutral transition. While ERA5 reanalysis reports a higher 1.43°C, discrepancies arise from methodological differences; final NOAA adjustments due mid-May could shift odds if late data reveals cooler polar or land readings.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$330,381Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released in early May 2026, indicate an April global surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving the 94.3% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome as traders anchor to this authoritative metric. Sustained record-high equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures—the warmest April on record there per Copernicus—combined with the second-warmest global ocean April, fueled this warmth amid fading El Niño influences and ENSO-neutral transition. While ERA5 reanalysis reports a higher 1.43°C, discrepancies arise from methodological differences; final NOAA adjustments due mid-May could shift odds if late data reveals cooler polar or land readings.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$330,381Fecha de finalización
10 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary NOAA Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index data, released in early May 2026, indicate an April global surface air temperature anomaly of approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving the 94.3% market-implied probability for the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome as traders anchor to this authoritative metric. Sustained record-high equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures—the warmest April on record there per Copernicus—combined with the second-warmest global ocean April, fueled this warmth amid fading El Niño influences and ENSO-neutral transition. While ERA5 reanalysis reports a higher 1.43°C, discrepancies arise from methodological differences; final NOAA adjustments due mid-May could shift odds if late data reveals cooler polar or land readings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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