Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 82% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026, persisting through year-end. This would amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific heat release, potentially offsetting 2026's year-to-date performance—January through April ranked fourth- or fifth-warmest per Copernicus and NOAA data, trailing 2024's record benchmarks. Ongoing anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings despite La Niña's prior cooling influence in early 2025; Berkeley Earth projects a likely fourth-place finish absent El Niño, but model ensembles suggest upside risk for top-two contention. Watch June ENSO updates and Q2-Q4 temperature reports for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.9%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 2.3%
$2,816,187 Vol.
$2,816,187 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.9%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 2.3%
$2,816,187 Vol.
$2,816,187 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$453,439 Vol.
36%
2
$325,635 Vol.
57%
3
$425,769 Vol.
2%
4
$415,664 Vol.
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$730,921 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$464,759 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 82% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026, persisting through year-end. This would amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific heat release, potentially offsetting 2026's year-to-date performance—January through April ranked fourth- or fifth-warmest per Copernicus and NOAA data, trailing 2024's record benchmarks. Ongoing anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings despite La Niña's prior cooling influence in early 2025; Berkeley Earth projects a likely fourth-place finish absent El Niño, but model ensembles suggest upside risk for top-two contention. Watch June ENSO updates and Q2-Q4 temperature reports for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,816,187Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 82% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026, persisting through year-end. This would amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific heat release, potentially offsetting 2026's year-to-date performance—January through April ranked fourth- or fifth-warmest per Copernicus and NOAA data, trailing 2024's record benchmarks. Ongoing anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings despite La Niña's prior cooling influence in early 2025; Berkeley Earth projects a likely fourth-place finish absent El Niño, but model ensembles suggest upside risk for top-two contention. Watch June ENSO updates and Q2-Q4 temperature reports for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,816,187Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% chance that 2026 ranks second-hottest on record and 36% for first, driven by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast signaling an 82% likelihood of El Niño emergence in May-July 2026, persisting through year-end. This would amplify global surface air temperatures via enhanced Pacific heat release, potentially offsetting 2026's year-to-date performance—January through April ranked fourth- or fifth-warmest per Copernicus and NOAA data, trailing 2024's record benchmarks. Ongoing anthropogenic warming ensures top rankings despite La Niña's prior cooling influence in early 2025; Berkeley Earth projects a likely fourth-place finish absent El Niño, but model ensembles suggest upside risk for top-two contention. Watch June ENSO updates and Q2-Q4 temperature reports for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes