U.S. announces $6 million aid package for Cuba amid energy blockade

May 31 dips to 1%1%

On May 15, the State Department announced an additional $6 million humanitarian aid for Cuba as the island faced an energy blockade. The announcement was seen as a concession that reduced immediate pressure for a dramatic U.S. disclosure, contributing to the sharp drop of the May 31 contract to 1% and keeping June 30 at 2%.

Market sentiment cools on UFO disclosure as Pentagon files fail to provide evidence

December 31 dips to 14%4%

Following the initial release of UFO files in April, the lack of any definitive confirmation of extraterrestrial life led to a steady decline in the market price for all outcomes as traders realized the government was not moving toward a formal confirmation.

U.S. and Venezuela explore restoring diplomatic relations after Maduro’s capture

A joint statement on May 12 reported that the United States and Venezuela were beginning talks to restore diplomatic ties following the U.S. capture of Maduro. The development suggested a possible de‑escalation of the broader geopolitical climate, reinforcing traders’ belief that a near‑term alien‑confirmation announcement was unlikely, further depressing all contracts.

Pentagon announces end of Stars and Stripes ‘woke’ content overhaul

September 30 drops to 6%7%

The Pentagon’s move to tighten control over its own military newspaper signaled a shift toward tighter information management, further dampening market optimism and pushing the September‑30 price down to 6% and the December‑31 price to 14%.

Federal judge blocks Pentagon policy limiting reporters’ access

May 31 dips to 1%2%

A court ruling that forced the Pentagon to restore press credentials reduced speculation that the agency would soon make a definitive alien‑existence statement, contributing to a sharp drop in all outcomes; the May‑31 price fell from 3% to 1% and the September‑30 price from 13% to 6%.

Pentagon continues releasing UFO files with retro-themed website

December 31 dips to 14%4%

The Pentagon unveiled a new website hosting UFO files with military imagery and typewriter font, releasing 162 files including State Department cables and NASA transcripts. This ongoing release maintained public interest but did not include any definitive confirmation of alien existence, contributing to market fluctuations and a decline in short-term resolution probabilities.

President Trump announces strategic reserve for rare‑earth elements

December 31 dips to 14%3%

While unrelated to UFOs, the announcement shifted market focus to broader defense and technology policy, pulling attention away from alien‑confirmation speculation and contributing to a 3‑point drop in the December‑31 price on May 9.

President Trump announces UFO‑transparency initiative and three‑day Russia‑Ukraine ceasefire

December 31 rises to 20%2%

Trump’s public pledge to increase UFO transparency and his social‑media post urging the public to draw its own conclusions revived hopes of an official alien acknowledgment, briefly raising the December‑31 price to 20% before a rapid decline the next day as analysts questioned the substance of the promise.

Pentagon announces rolling release of additional UFO documents

Following the February dump, the Pentagon confirmed it would continue releasing UFO files on a rolling basis, emphasizing ongoing transparency. The announcement tempered earlier excitement, causing a modest decline in market prices as traders reassessed the likelihood of a definitive confirmation.

Pentagon’s anti‑drone laser use triggers FAA airspace shutdown over El Paso

The Pentagon allowed Customs and Border Protection to fire an anti‑drone laser near Fort Bliss without FAA coordination, prompting the FAA to close El Paso airspace for several hours. The incident underscored heightened military activity and raised doubts about imminent UFO disclosures, pushing prices down to single‑digit levels for all contracts.

U.S. Senate committee holds hearing on UFO disclosure policy

May 31 drops to 1%5%

A bipartisan Senate hearing examined the government’s UFO disclosure strategy, suggesting no immediate confirmation was planned. The discussion contributed to a decline in the May 31 odds from 6% to 1% as traders reassessed the timeline.

Trump cancels envoy mission to Pakistan; Iran offers 'much better' proposal

May 31 dips to 13%3%

Trump canceled the mission of envoys to Islamabad after Iran's foreign minister's brief return, and Iran reportedly sent a 'much better' proposal, contributing to market uncertainty.

Partial federal government shutdown stalls Pentagon funding

June 30 dips to 6%2%

A lapse in appropriations forced many Pentagon operations to pause, reducing confidence that any official alien‑confirmation statement could be issued before year‑end. Prices for all outcomes fell, with the June‑30 contract dropping from 8% to 6% and the May‑31 contract from 4% to 2%.

Renewed Pentagon UFO file releases and congressional pressure for transparency

Additional UFO files were released by the Pentagon, and congressional Republicans pressed for further transparency, including the release of whistleblower videos. Despite increased information, no definitive government confirmation of extraterrestrial life was made, causing market prices to stabilize and then decline for earlier resolution dates.

Trump tweets that a formal alien confirmation is imminent

June 30 rises to 14%4%

President Trump posted on Truth Social that a major announcement confirming extraterrestrial life would be made within weeks, spurring a brief rally in the market and raising the June 30 odds from 10% to 14% before they fell again as the statement proved vague.

Pentagon announces upcoming release of 46 UAP videos

December 31 rises to 19%2%

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna announced that the Pentagon would release 46 videos of unidentified aerial phenomena, fueling speculation about government transparency on UFOs. This announcement caused a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting renewed hopes for official confirmation.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with no confirmation of alien life

December 31 rises to 21%3%

The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This release sparked public curiosity and a brief increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, but the lack of definitive confirmation led to a subsequent decline.

Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs and says the public can draw its own conclusions

December 31 rises to 23%4%

The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files, which President Trump had previously teased as a major disclosure. However, the files did not provide definitive proof of alien life, causing the market to adjust downward as the 'major dump' failed to meet expectations for confirmation.

Senate committee holds hearing on UFO disclosures

September 30 rises to 14%2%

Congress convened a hearing to discuss the newly released UFO material, briefly reviving optimism and nudging the September‑30 outcome up to 14% before it fell again later in the month.

Pentagon releases new UFO files detailing sightings but no confirmation of alien life

The Pentagon released a batch of declassified UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking public interest but stopping short of confirming extraterrestrial life. This transparency effort by the Trump administration increased public curiosity but did not provide definitive proof, leading to a modest market reaction with no significant price increase.

U.S. and Iran agree to indefinite ceasefire

September 30 dips to 13%1%

A historic ceasefire agreement was reached on April 7, temporarily halting the Iran war after two months of conflict, providing some stability to the global economy.

Pentagon reiterates no confirmed evidence of alien technology in UFO files

December 31 dips to 16%3%

Despite the release of numerous UFO files, Pentagon officials and experts cautioned that the files do not confirm the existence of alien technology. This tempered market enthusiasm, leading to a slight price correction.

Pentagon announces upcoming release of additional UFO videos

December 31 rises to 18%4%

Following pressure from some Republican lawmakers, the Pentagon announced plans to release 46 UFO videos identified by whistleblowers, fueling speculation but not providing official confirmation of alien life. This announcement caused a modest rise in market prices for longer-term outcomes.

Cuban officials present AKM rifles to singer Silvio Rodríguez after anti‑U.S. remarks

December 31 rises to 16%3%

Cuba’s public gifting of military rifles to a prominent artist, following his threats against the United States, heightened geopolitical tension and revived speculation about secret U.S.‑Cuban encounters with unidentified technology, nudging the market upward.

Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats

September 30 dips to 9%3%

In response to Trump’s rhetoric about a possible “friendly takeover” of Cuba, the Cuban state presented a rifle to protest singer Silvio Rodríguez. The gesture underscored heightened tensions and reinforced market belief that the U.S. would not make a conciliatory statement on extraterrestrials, pushing all later‑date contracts lower.

Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats

June 30 dips to 7%1%

Same event, affecting the June‑30 contract which fell from 8% to 7% in the following days.

Cuban government gifts AKM rifle to singer after Trump’s Cuba threats

May 31 dips to 2%2%

Same event, influencing the May‑31 contract which slipped from 4% to 2% as market sentiment soured further.

White House says no definitive evidence of extraterrestrials has been found

June 30 drops to 2%5%

A senior administration official publicly stated that, despite the recent releases, the government has not confirmed any alien technology, causing the market to retreat and the June‑30 and May‑31 outcomes to fall to 2%.

White House says no definitive evidence of extraterrestrials has been found

May 31 dips to 2%2%

Same statement also impacted the May‑31 outcome, pulling its price down to 2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a near‑term confirmation.

U.S. and Israel launch attacks on Iran; Strait of Hormuz shut down

June 30 dips to 8%2%

Joint U.S.-Israeli strikes began on February 28, disrupting global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, causing a major economic shock and triggering the start of the Iran war.

Pentagon Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s controversial policies and media restrictions

December 31 dips to 16%1%

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth imposed new media rules and policies at the Pentagon, leading to lawsuits and media pushback. While not directly related to alien confirmation, these actions influenced public perception of Pentagon transparency and may have indirectly affected market sentiment on UFO disclosures.

President Trump tweets that UFO disclosures are “coming soon” after Pentagon release

December 31 dips to 14%3%

Following the Pentagon’s file drop, Trump posted on Truth Social that more revelations were imminent, reinforcing market expectations that the government might soon confirm extraterrestrial evidence, driving the price to a peak.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, Trump touts transparency

The Pentagon posted 162 previously classified UFO documents on a new website, a move highlighted by President Trump on Truth Social. The unprecedented disclosure revived speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, pushing the December‑31 contract up to 23% and lifting other dates as well.

Pentagon’s UAP website traffic spikes after media coverage

December 31 rises to 13%3%

Widespread reporting on the February 9 release drove a surge in public interest, pushing the December‑31 price to a 4‑point high of 13% and the September‑30 price to 15%, reflecting heightened belief in an imminent confirmation.

Trump threatens “friendly takeover” of Cuba during televised interview

September 30 drops to 7%7%

In a February 20 interview, Trump said the United States could consider a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, heightening fears of a dramatic geopolitical shift that could include disclosure of secret programs. The speculation drove the September 30 contract down from 14% to 7% and pushed the June 30 and May 31 contracts toward single‑digit levels.

President Trump publicly promotes UFO document release and transparency

December 31 jumps to 18%8%

President Trump posted on social media emphasizing the transparency of the new UFO files release and inviting the public to decide what is going on. This statement reinforced market expectations that the government might confirm alien existence, causing a price spike.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files amid Trump‑prompted transparency push

December 31 jumps to 17%5%

The Department of Defense made public a trove of declassified UFO videos and reports, a move encouraged by President Trump’s recent social‑media calls for disclosure. Traders saw the unprecedented release as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 outcome.

U.S. and Venezuela explore restoring diplomatic ties after Maduro’s capture

September 30 drops to 9%5%

The announcement of diplomatic talks signaled a shift in focus away from the dramatic capture of Maduro, dampening speculation that the administration would soon confirm alien evidence, leading to a drop in the September 30 odds from 14% to 9%.

Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public urged to draw own conclusions

December 31 jumps to 18%8%

The Pentagon started releasing a batch of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents describing unidentified aerial phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, encouraging the public to interpret the information themselves, which increased market optimism about possible official confirmation of extraterrestrial life.

President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade

September 30 dips to 12%2%

Trump announced a new round of tariffs targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba, heightening the U.S. energy blockade. The move was seen as a signal that the administration would not soften its stance, reducing market confidence that any U.S. official would acknowledge alien life soon, causing a drop in the September‑30, June‑30 and May‑31 contracts.

President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade

June 30 dips to 8%2%

Same event as above, affecting the June‑30 contract which fell from 10% to 8% in the days following the announcement.

President Trump threatens further oil tariffs on Cuba, intensifying energy blockade

May 31 dips to 4%2%

Same event, driving the May‑31 contract down from 6% to 4% as traders priced in a prolonged hostile U.S. stance.

Joint Chiefs Chairman details Maduro capture operation

December 31 rises to 12%3%

Gen. Dan Caine provided a detailed account of the meticulously planned US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, highlighting extensive intelligence and military coordination. This high-profile event increased attention on US government actions but did not relate directly to alien confirmation, causing minor market fluctuations.

Pentagon releases new UFO files with no definitive alien confirmation

December 31 jumps to 14%5%

The Pentagon published a trove of previously unreleased UFO files, including videos and testimonies, which fueled speculation but explicitly did not confirm extraterrestrial life. This event increased market interest in the December 31 outcome, pushing its price from 9% to 14%.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files to the public

December 31 jumps to 16%7%

The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting speculation that the government might soon confirm alien existence, which pushed the December‑31 outcome up to 16% on Feb 20.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files, sparking renewed speculation on alien life

The Department of Defense declassified a set of UFO videos and reports, prompting President Trump to tweet about the need for transparency. Traders interpreted the disclosure as a possible step toward an official confirmation, lifting the market’s odds in early February.

Pentagon releases declassified UFO files, Trump touts transparency on alien phenomena

December 31 jumps to 14%5%

The Department of Defense made a batch of previously classified UFO documents public, and President Trump highlighted the release on Truth Social, suggesting the government was moving toward confirming extraterrestrial evidence. Traders interpreted this as a boost to the likelihood of a formal U.S. acknowledgment, lifting the December‑31 contract.

Pentagon releases new UFO files amid Trump’s push for alien transparency

December 31 jumps to 20%10%

The Department of Defense declassified a batch of UFO videos and reports, a move publicly encouraged by President Trump on Truth Social. Traders saw this as a step toward official acknowledgment, lifting the December 31 odds from 10% to 20%.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files with detailed sightings

December 31 jumps to 17%8%

The Pentagon began releasing a trove of new UFO files including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, sparking renewed public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This event caused a notable increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome, reflecting heightened optimism about a possible official confirmation.

Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files under Trump administration

December 31 rises to 11%2%

The Pentagon started releasing a trove of previously classified UFO files, including videos and documents, as part of a transparency effort led by President Trump. This release sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial phenomena but did not include any definitive confirmation of alien life, causing a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome.

Trump administration releases new batch of Pentagon UFO files

December 31 rises to 12%3%

The Trump administration released a trove of declassified Pentagon files on UFO sightings, including videos and testimonies, renewing public interest in extraterrestrial phenomena. However, the files did not confirm alien existence, leading to a temporary increase in market prices for the December 31 outcome but no definitive resolution.

Federal judge restores Pentagon press credentials for major newspapers

A district court ruled that the Pentagon’s new media‑access policy violated First Amendment rights, ordering the reinstatement of credentials for outlets like The New York Times. The decision signaled a potential increase in reporting on classified UFO matters, but also highlighted internal conflicts, causing a modest pullback in market prices to around 9% for all outcomes.

President Trump emphasizes transparency on UFO files and public interpretation

December 31 rises to 12%3%

President Trump publicly highlighted the release of UFO files and encouraged the public to interpret the information themselves, signaling a more open approach to the topic of extraterrestrial life. This statement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential official confirmation by the end of the year.

President Trump publicly teases major UFO document dump

December 31 rises to 10%1%

President Trump publicly teased a major release of UFO documents, increasing speculation and market interest in official disclosure. This statement helped drive early February price increases for the December 31 outcome.

Republican lawmaker demands release of additional UAP videos

December 31 rises to 10%1%

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly urged the Pentagon to release more UAP footage, intensifying congressional pressure for transparency and suggesting a possible forthcoming official acknowledgment before the year’s end, which pushed the December 31 price up further.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files

December 31 rises to 10%1%

The Pentagon began releasing a new trove of UFO-related documents and videos, with President Trump encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions about the phenomena.

Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files with public transparency focus

December 31 rises to 9%1%

On January 16, 2026, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files, including old State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts, emphasizing transparency and allowing the public to draw their own conclusions. This event increased market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a price rise from 8% to 9% for the December 31 outcome.

Pentagon begins releasing new files on UFOs

December 31 rises to 11%3%

The Pentagon released a new batch of UFO-related documents, which President Trump promoted as a transparency effort, allowing the public to draw their own conclusions about unidentified anomalous phenomena.

DOJ opens criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell

December 31 rises to 9%1%

A Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Powell raised concerns about political pressure on the central bank, leading some traders to anticipate a possible presidential statement on broader government transparency, including UFO disclosures, which lifted the December 31 contract.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files sparking public debate

December 31 rises to 7%1%

The Department of Defense disclosed additional declassified UFO documents, highlighting unexplained sightings and prompting media coverage that revived speculation about official acknowledgment of extraterrestrial phenomena, nudging the December 31 outcome higher.

Pentagon censors Senator Mark Kelly over anti‑war video

December 31 rises to 11%3%

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth formally censured Senator Kelly for a video urging troops to resist unlawful orders, reigniting debate over government transparency and raising the chance of an official alien‑existence statement, which lifted prices in mid‑January.

U.S. labor report shows strong hiring, shifting focus away from UFO speculation

The Labor Department reported a surprising gain of 130,000 jobs, drawing media attention to economic news and reducing speculative interest in the alien‑confirmation market, contributing to the price staying low at 7%.

White House press secretary reiterates no official confirmation of alien life

December 31 dips to 7%2%

At a daily briefing, the White House press secretary stated that the administration had no definitive evidence of extraterrestrial existence, dampening hopes of a near‑term confirmation and pushing the market’s probability down to 7%.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration

December 31 rises to 12%2%

The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the files did not provide definitive confirmation of alien existence, leading to a moderate increase in market price for the December 31 outcome.

Republican lawmaker Anna Paulina Luna demands release of additional UAP videos

Rep. Luna’s public demand for the Pentagon to release 46 more UAP videos added pressure on the agency to be more transparent, reinforcing market expectations of a possible official confirmation before year‑end and contributing to the price jump on Dec 8.

Trump administration releases new UFO files on unidentified anomalous phenomena

December 31 jumps to 21%11%

President Trump's administration began releasing declassified Pentagon files on UFOs and UAPs, including 162 documents such as State Department cables, FBI records, and NASA transcripts. This marked a significant transparency push on a topic of public interest, potentially influencing market sentiment.

Trump administration releases additional UFO files with retro Pentagon website

December 31 jumps to 21%11%

On December 7, 2025, the Pentagon released 162 new UFO-related files on a retro-themed website, including State Department cables, FBI documents, and NASA transcripts. The administration emphasized transparency, but the files did not confirm alien technology. This release caused a peak in market price to 21%, reflecting increased public interest and speculation.

Federal judge blocks Pentagon policy limiting reporters’ access

December 31 rises to 12%2%

A district court ruled that the Trump administration’s new Pentagon credential rules violated First Amendment rights, reducing optimism that the agency would openly acknowledge UFO findings and causing the market to retreat.

Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files

December 31 rises to 12%3%

The Pentagon made public a new set of UAP videos and reports, including historic sightings, intensifying speculation that the agency might soon acknowledge extraterrestrial technology, which pushed the market’s Yes price for the December‑31 outcome upward.

Pentagon releases new UFO files sparking speculation of alien evidence

December 31 dips to 9%4%

The Department of Defense declassified a set of videos and reports on unidentified aerial phenomena, prompting media outlets to highlight the possibility of official acknowledgment and pushing the market’s Yes price up from 13% to 9% as traders priced in a higher chance of a December‑31 confirmation.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files without confirming alien existence

December 31 rises to 12%2%

The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of UFO files, including old State Department cables and NASA transcripts, but emphasized that the information was unresolved and left interpretation to the public. This release sparked public interest but did not include any official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a temporary rise in market probability.

President Trump teases major UFO document dump on Truth Social

December 31 rises to 10%2%

Trump posted on Truth Social that he would soon release a large trove of UFO records, reviving public and congressional pressure for official disclosure and raising expectations that the government might confirm alien existence before Dec 31.

Trump administration begins releasing new Pentagon UFO files

December 31 rises to 10%3%

On November 29, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files, including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump emphasized transparency, encouraging the public to draw their own conclusions. This event increased market optimism slightly, reflected in the price rising from 7% to 10%.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files under Trump administration

December 31 rises to 10%3%

The Pentagon began releasing a trove of declassified UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, which sparked renewed public curiosity and speculation about extraterrestrial life. However, the documents did not confirm the existence of alien technology, leading to a temporary price increase in the market for US confirmation of aliens.

Pentagon begins releasing new UFO files, Trump encourages public to draw conclusions

December 31 rises to 11%4%

On November 28, 2025, the Pentagon started releasing a new batch of UFO files including videos, imagery, and testimonies about unidentified anomalous phenomena. President Trump highlighted the release, emphasizing transparency and inviting the public to interpret the information themselves. This event caused a significant price increase in the market, reflecting heightened speculation about possible confirmation of alien existence.

Pentagon begins releasing UFO files amid Trump’s push for transparency

December 31 rises to 11%4%

The Pentagon started releasing a batch of UFO files, including videos and testimonies of unidentified aerial phenomena, as part of an effort encouraged by President Trump to increase transparency on the subject. This event heightened public and market interest in the possibility of official confirmation of extraterrestrial life, causing a notable price increase in the market for confirmation by December 31.

Pentagon releases new batch of UFO files revealing unusual sightings

December 31 rises to 11%4%

The Pentagon began releasing a new batch of declassified UFO files detailing numerous sightings of unidentified aerial phenomena, including erratic maneuvers and bright orbs, sparking public interest and speculation about extraterrestrial life. This release, encouraged by former President Trump, increased market optimism about a possible official confirmation by December 31, 2026, causing the price for that outcome to rise from 7% to 11%.

Pentagon releases new batch of declassified UFO files

December 31 rises to 10%3%

The Defense Department posted a new website with previously unseen UFO documents, and President Trump highlighted the release on Truth Social, prompting traders to anticipate an official confirmation of alien existence.