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Clima Y Ciencia·SpaceX

¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?

Market icon
Clima Y Ciencia·SpaceX

¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

5-6 37%

<5 37%

7-8 14%

9-10 9.3%

Polymarket

$340,224 Vol.

5-6 37%

<5 37%

7-8 14%

9-10 9.3%

Polymarket

$340,224 Vol.

<5

$70,426 Vol.

37%

5-6

$80,522 Vol.

37%

7-8

$150,850 Vol.

14%

9-10

$0 Vol.

9%

11-12

$2,942 Vol.

5%

13-14

$3,647 Vol.

2%

15-16

$23,563 Vol.

1%

>16

$8,275 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on SpaceX Starship's 2026 launch cadence to space, with 5-6 flights (37%) edging out fewer than 5 (36.5%), reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent delays for the year's first test. Flight 12, debuting the more powerful Raptor 3 engines and Version 3 Super Heavy booster, has slipped repeatedly—now targeting early April after ground support equipment failures during partial static fires on Booster 19 and Pad 2 activation hiccups. Historical flight tests averaged 4-5 annually through 2025, constrained by FAA licensing and iterative hardware fixes, tempering Elon Musk's 25-launch goal despite Starbase expansions. Key swing factors include Flight 12 success enabling reuse demos, rapid turnaround, and regulatory green lights; failure could lock in sub-5 outcomes as development hurdles persist.

Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on SpaceX Starship's 2026 launch cadence to space, with 5-6 flights (37%) edging out fewer than 5 (36.5%), reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent delays for the year's first test. Flight 12, debuting the more powerful Raptor 3 engines and Version 3 Super Heavy booster, has slipped repeatedly—now targeting early April after ground support equipment failures during partial static fires on Booster 19 and Pad 2 activation hiccups. Historical flight tests averaged 4-5 annually through 2025, constrained by FAA licensing and iterative hardware fixes, tempering Elon Musk's 25-launch goal despite Starbase expansions. Key swing factors include Flight 12 success enabling reuse demos, rapid turnaround, and regulatory green lights; failure could lock in sub-5 outcomes as development hurdles persist.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on SpaceX Starship's 2026 launch cadence to space, with 5-6 flights (37%) edging out fewer than 5 (36.5%), reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent delays for the year's first test. Flight 12, debuting the more powerful Raptor 3 engines and Version 3 Super Heavy booster, has slipped repeatedly—now targeting early April after ground support equipment failures during partial static fires on Booster 19 and Pad 2 activation hiccups. Historical flight tests averaged 4-5 annually through 2025, constrained by FAA licensing and iterative hardware fixes, tempering Elon Musk's 25-launch goal despite Starbase expansions. Key swing factors include Flight 12 success enabling reuse demos, rapid turnaround, and regulatory green lights; failure could lock in sub-5 outcomes as development hurdles persist.

Polymarket traders remain sharply divided on SpaceX Starship's 2026 launch cadence to space, with 5-6 flights (37%) edging out fewer than 5 (36.5%), reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent delays for the year's first test. Flight 12, debuting the more powerful Raptor 3 engines and Version 3 Super Heavy booster, has slipped repeatedly—now targeting early April after ground support equipment failures during partial static fires on Booster 19 and Pad 2 activation hiccups. Historical flight tests averaged 4-5 annually through 2025, constrained by FAA licensing and iterative hardware fixes, tempering Elon Musk's 25-launch goal despite Starbase expansions. Key swing factors include Flight 12 success enabling reuse demos, rapid turnaround, and regulatory green lights; failure could lock in sub-5 outcomes as development hurdles persist.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 8 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "<5" con 37%, seguido de "5-6" con 37%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?" ha generado $340.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Dec 12, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?", explora los 8 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?" es "<5" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "5-6" con 37%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.