Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting zero successful flights halfway through the year despite aggressive quarterly targets. Repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the advanced V3 Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor engines—pushed the window from March to a now-imminent May 15-19 liftoff following recent full-duration fueling tests and static fires at the upgraded Pad 2. While FAA approvals enable up to 44 annual launches from Starbase, historical cadence (five flights in 2025) and new hardware risks temper expectations for rapid scaling, positioning 5-6 launches as the next viable outcome at 26%. A successful Flight 12 could catalyze higher volume via rapid reusability demos.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 62%
5-6 27%
7-8 6.6%
>16 2.2%
$448,922 Vol.
$448,922 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
62%
5-6
27%
7-8
7%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
<1%
>16
2%
<5 62%
5-6 27%
7-8 6.6%
>16 2.2%
$448,922 Vol.
$448,922 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$90,457 Vol.
62%
5-6
$108,280 Vol.
27%
7-8
$151,990 Vol.
7%
9-10
$55,602 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,032 Vol.
<1%
>16
$9,048 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting zero successful flights halfway through the year despite aggressive quarterly targets. Repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the advanced V3 Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor engines—pushed the window from March to a now-imminent May 15-19 liftoff following recent full-duration fueling tests and static fires at the upgraded Pad 2. While FAA approvals enable up to 44 annual launches from Starbase, historical cadence (five flights in 2025) and new hardware risks temper expectations for rapid scaling, positioning 5-6 launches as the next viable outcome at 26%. A successful Flight 12 could catalyze higher volume via rapid reusability demos.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$448,922Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting zero successful flights halfway through the year despite aggressive quarterly targets. Repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the advanced V3 Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor engines—pushed the window from March to a now-imminent May 15-19 liftoff following recent full-duration fueling tests and static fires at the upgraded Pad 2. While FAA approvals enable up to 44 annual launches from Starbase, historical cadence (five flights in 2025) and new hardware risks temper expectations for rapid scaling, positioning 5-6 launches as the next viable outcome at 26%. A successful Flight 12 could catalyze higher volume via rapid reusability demos.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$448,922Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026 at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting zero successful flights halfway through the year despite aggressive quarterly targets. Repeated delays for Flight 12—the debut of the advanced V3 Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy booster with 33 Raptor engines—pushed the window from March to a now-imminent May 15-19 liftoff following recent full-duration fueling tests and static fires at the upgraded Pad 2. While FAA approvals enable up to 44 annual launches from Starbase, historical cadence (five flights in 2025) and new hardware risks temper expectations for rapid scaling, positioning 5-6 launches as the next viable outcome at 26%. A successful Flight 12 could catalyze higher volume via rapid reusability demos.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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