Traders' near-unanimous 97% odds on "No" for the Doge-1 lunar mission launching before 2027 stem from years of repeated delays and radio silence from operator Geometric Energy Corporation since its 2021 announcement. Originally targeting a 2022 SpaceX rideshare to lunar orbit, the 3U CubeSat—intended for radiation-hardened imaging and blockchain experiments—shifted to Intuitive Machines' IM-2 lander, now eyed for net February 2025 but unconfirmed for Doge-1 integration amid IM-1's 2024 failure and qualification hurdles. Historical smallsat lunar manifests often slip 2–5 years due to orbital constraints and testing. Realistic Yes scenarios include a surprise Falcon 9 secondary slot before 2026, though rideshare windows and crypto-funding volatility make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?
¿Se lanzará la Misión Lunar Doge-1 antes de 2027?
Sí
$671,060 Vol.
$671,060 Vol.
Sí
$671,060 Vol.
$671,060 Vol.
The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Mercado abierto: Jan 7, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-unanimous 97% odds on "No" for the Doge-1 lunar mission launching before 2027 stem from years of repeated delays and radio silence from operator Geometric Energy Corporation since its 2021 announcement. Originally targeting a 2022 SpaceX rideshare to lunar orbit, the 3U CubeSat—intended for radiation-hardened imaging and blockchain experiments—shifted to Intuitive Machines' IM-2 lander, now eyed for net February 2025 but unconfirmed for Doge-1 integration amid IM-1's 2024 failure and qualification hurdles. Historical smallsat lunar manifests often slip 2–5 years due to orbital constraints and testing. Realistic Yes scenarios include a surprise Falcon 9 secondary slot before 2026, though rideshare windows and crypto-funding volatility make this improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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