SpaceX's accelerating Falcon 9 reusability—averaging over two launches per week in late 2024—and Starship's booster catch milestone in October 2024 are the primary drivers elevating trader odds for 140-179 launches in 2026, with 160-179 (33.5%) nearly matching 140-159 (35.8%). Historical cadence has doubled annually since 2022, fueled by Starlink constellation expansion requiring frequent low-Earth orbit insertions, but differentiation hinges on Starship's rapid reuse cycle: if propellant loading and thermal protection systems scale to 5-10 flights monthly by mid-2026, 200+ becomes viable (17.0%); delays in FAA licensing or test anomalies cap at lower bins. Upcoming January 2025 Starship flights will sharpen these market-implied probabilities.