SpaceX's blistering Falcon 9 launch cadence—reaching over 55 orbital missions by early May 2026, or nearly three per week—has solidified trader consensus around 160-179 total launches for the year, reflecting the 49% implied probability for that bin. This pace, fueled by high booster reusability (over 570 reflights) and relentless Starlink constellation expansion, outstrips 2025's record 165 launches and aligns with historical success rates exceeding 99% for mature Falcon vehicles. Recent developments, including President Gwynne Shotwell's guidance of "140-145-ish" tempered by actual performance surpassing projections, position 140-159 (32.6%) as a close second. Starship's nascent operational tests add minor upside potential, while FAA approvals and range weather remain key variables; expect manifest updates to refine odds ahead of Q3 peak demand.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX en 2026?
160-179 48%
140-159 32.6%
180-199 9.9%
200 o más 5%
$300,886 Vol.
$300,886 Vol.
<100
1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
33%
160-179
48%
180-199
13%
200 o más
5%
160-179 48%
140-159 32.6%
180-199 9.9%
200 o más 5%
$300,886 Vol.
$300,886 Vol.
<100
1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
33%
160-179
48%
180-199
13%
200 o más
5%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Mercado abierto: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's blistering Falcon 9 launch cadence—reaching over 55 orbital missions by early May 2026, or nearly three per week—has solidified trader consensus around 160-179 total launches for the year, reflecting the 49% implied probability for that bin. This pace, fueled by high booster reusability (over 570 reflights) and relentless Starlink constellation expansion, outstrips 2025's record 165 launches and aligns with historical success rates exceeding 99% for mature Falcon vehicles. Recent developments, including President Gwynne Shotwell's guidance of "140-145-ish" tempered by actual performance surpassing projections, position 140-159 (32.6%) as a close second. Starship's nascent operational tests add minor upside potential, while FAA approvals and range weather remain key variables; expect manifest updates to refine odds ahead of Q3 peak demand.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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