NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog daily for Earth impact risks, shows no credible threats capable of a 1-megaton yield in 2026, driving the market's 94.6% implied probability for "No." The two listed potential impactors—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carry negligible probabilities below 0.004% and would produce far less energy than Chelyabinsk's 2013 0.5-megaton airburst. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 95% of kilometer-class near-Earth objects, with recent March 2026 observations ruling out other long-term risks such as 2024 YR4's lunar trajectory. Trader consensus reflects this robust planetary defense monitoring, though realistic challenges include a rare undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evading telescopes until late detection. Continuous radar and optical updates from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office could refine minor probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteoro de 1 megatón en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteoro de 1 megatón en 2026?
Sí
$102,036 Vol.
$102,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$102,036 Vol.
$102,036 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog daily for Earth impact risks, shows no credible threats capable of a 1-megaton yield in 2026, driving the market's 94.6% implied probability for "No." The two listed potential impactors—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carry negligible probabilities below 0.004% and would produce far less energy than Chelyabinsk's 2013 0.5-megaton airburst. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 95% of kilometer-class near-Earth objects, with recent March 2026 observations ruling out other long-term risks such as 2024 YR4's lunar trajectory. Trader consensus reflects this robust planetary defense monitoring, though realistic challenges include a rare undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evading telescopes until late detection. Continuous radar and optical updates from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office could refine minor probabilities further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$102,036Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog daily for Earth impact risks, shows no credible threats capable of a 1-megaton yield in 2026, driving the market's 94.6% implied probability for "No." The two listed potential impactors—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carry negligible probabilities below 0.004% and would produce far less energy than Chelyabinsk's 2013 0.5-megaton airburst. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 95% of kilometer-class near-Earth objects, with recent March 2026 observations ruling out other long-term risks such as 2024 YR4's lunar trajectory. Trader consensus reflects this robust planetary defense monitoring, though realistic challenges include a rare undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evading telescopes until late detection. Continuous radar and optical updates from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office could refine minor probabilities further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$102,036Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system, which scans the asteroid catalog daily for Earth impact risks, shows no credible threats capable of a 1-megaton yield in 2026, driving the market's 94.6% implied probability for "No." The two listed potential impactors—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carry negligible probabilities below 0.004% and would produce far less energy than Chelyabinsk's 2013 0.5-megaton airburst. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS have cataloged over 95% of kilometer-class near-Earth objects, with recent March 2026 observations ruling out other long-term risks such as 2024 YR4's lunar trajectory. Trader consensus reflects this robust planetary defense monitoring, though realistic challenges include a rare undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evading telescopes until late detection. Continuous radar and optical updates from NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office could refine minor probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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